Sutanu Guru
If public displays of tenacity, verve and determination were the sole factor, Rahul Gandhi would have been the prime minister of India by a long stretch. Look at the optics. Even after voters in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh & Chattisgarh delivered a stinging slap to a “resurgent” Congress, the fetish for public displays stays intact. Of course, there has been a fabulous victory for the Congress in Telangana as a consolation prize. Make no mistake: in the larger scheme of things, it is a consolation prize. But hats off to the Congress for innovative audacity. Soon after more than Rs 350 crores was “discovered” by the Income Tax department in premises related to Congress Rajya Sabha MP Dheeraj Sahu, the party figured out an interesting way to tell the public it is short of cash. So a donation drive invoking Mahatma Gandhi and called “Donate for Desh” has been launched. Doubts have been raised about the ability of Rahul Gandhi to enthuse and energise voters have been raised for the nth time. But to show the sceptical Indian public that he is a long-distance marathon champion, Rahul will embark on a sequel to Bharat Jodo Yatra, this time from the northeast to the west. There is a simple and fundamental problem though. If you go by electoral verdicts, the Indian public doesn’t seem very impressed by these public displays of bravado. I doubt if any other top leader of a political party in a functional democracy anywhere in the world enjoys the electoral track record that Rahul Gandhi can boast of. It is truly unmatched. Just have a brief look at his “spectacular” record.
His genuine major success is the 2009 Lok Sabha elections when the Congress won an unexpected 206 seats 9including 22 in Uttar Pradesh) and the UPA was given a bigger repeat mandate by the Indian voter. Many analysts ascribe that victory to Dr Manmohan Singh. But lets be generous for a moment and credit Rahul Gandhi for the victory that virtually marked an end to the political career of L. K. Advani of the BJP. (You see, even in “fascist” parties like the BJP, top leaders are tossed aside or eased out if they can’t win elections). For Rahul Gandhi, 2009 was the pinnacle. It has been downhill since then.
- In 2010, there were “unprecedented” crowds during his election rallies. Gushing “field” reporters from many media organisations fell over themselves predicting the arrival of the next prime minister of India. The Congress contested 243 seats and won 4. You read it right. Just 4. Undaunted, Rahul moved his attention next to Uttar Pradesh where he was determined to revive the Congress. He made a splash by riding pillion on a bike and protesting near Greater Noida for “farmers” rights. The Congress contested 355 seats and won 28. Better than Bihar, I guess. It failed to dislodge the Akali-BJP alliance in Punjab in 2012 and surrendered Gujarat yet again to the BJP led by Narendra Modi. It had victories in Assam and Kerala though, followed by victories in Uttarakhand & Himachal.
- It was soon after the Gujarat verdict that Modi became a serious contender for the prime minister’s post and the real troubles started for Rahul Gandhi in the electoral arena. The Congress won a handsome victory against a divided BJP in 2013 in Karnataka. But it was mauled by the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh & Chattisgarh.
- In 2014, the Congress reached a nadir, winning just 44 Lok Sabha seats. It also badly lost erstwhile strongholds of Haryana and Maharashtra in assembly elections. It was obliterated in Andhra Pradesh and lost Telangana. It won Bihar as a very junior alliance partner. It lost Assam and Kerala in 2016. It was dumped as an ally by Mamata Didi and became irrelevant in the 2016 assembly elections in the state. It ensured the narrow defeat of a DMK led alliance in Tamil Nadu. In 2017, it finally regained Punjab. But lost badly in Uttarakhand, Himachal and lost despite winning more seats in Goa. It formed an alliance with SP led by Akhilesh Yadav, contested about 100 seats and won 7. It lost Karnataka in 2018 but won handsome victories in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh & Chattisgarh.
- Suddenly, analysts again saw Rahul as a serious challenger to Modi for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. But then, he led the Congress to yet another electoral debacle winning just 52 Lok Sabha seats. It won Jharkhand as a junior alliance partner in 2019 but lost again in Haryana & Maharashtra. Like in 2015, it won zero seats in Delhi assembly elections. It lost Assam, lost Kerala, lost Puducherry and became completely irrelevant in Bengal in 2021. In 2022, it won a consolation prize in Himachal. But was decimated again in Uttarakhand, Punjab& Goa and virtually demolished in Uttar Pradesh despite Rahul sibling Priyanka leading the charge.
- In 2023, Rahul has “performed” better as the Congress has won Karnataka & Telangana.
But seriously, if you objectively look at this electoral track record, would you conclude that Rahul Gandhi is a serious challenger to Narendra Modi for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections?
Disclaimer:
This is the personal opinion of the author. The views expressed in this write-up have nothing to do with www.prameyanews.com.
