Arun Joshi
Today – May 20, 2024- when the polling for the fifth phase in north Kashmir’s Baramulla constituency is underway , Kashmir politics can make or mar the prospects of the Abdullah dynasty . The Abdullah family’s scion and former chief minister Omar Abdullah is testing waters in the constituency where he had not ventured ever before in the electoral battle since he entered Kashmir’s political arena with his successful bid in 1998 Lok Sabha polls.
Omar , who by many is reckoned as “ Last Abdullah” in Kashmir politics , is up against a fierce battle where his rivals in Baramulla constituency call him “ tourist” implying that he is an outsider for he had never been part of Baramulla constituency during Lok Sabha or Assembly polls before this electoral battle . He is pitched against Sajad Gani Lone of People’s Conference , and Engineer Rashid of Awami Iteehad Party . Both Lone and Engineer Rashid are natives of Kupwara district , which is part of Baramulla constituency . There are 21 other candidates in the constituency which is having over 17 lakh voters , but the real contest is among Omar, Sajad and Engineer Rashid .
If Omar wins this poll from Baramulla , it would be reaffirmation of the domination of his party and family in the politics , any other result will put a big question mark on his political career , and also that of his father Farooq Abdullah who is 88 . This Lok Sabha poll is seen as a preview of the Assembly polls in J&K, which as per Supreme Court directions are to be held by September 30th this year. Omar has declared that he won’t contest Assembly polls until the time J&K is a Union Territory. So , his next tryst with electoral politics if he fails to make the mark , will be in 2029 . That is a big gap.
Ironically he is contesting this election on the same theme as his rivals- to speak for the dignity of the people of Kashmir which they allege has been mauled by August 5, 2019 decision of scrapping Article 370 . Omar, in his speeches , and polling eve appeal has sought to project himself as a leader who has the capacity and capability of becoming voice of the people in the Parliament . He has been three-time MP, and also minister of state for external affairs . He knows dynamics of the national politics like his father , but till date he has not been able to match his father’s stature as face and voice of Kashmir.
Abdullah family in Kashmir politics is like Patnaik family in Odisha , Badal’s in Punjab , Pawar’s in Maharashtra, Yadav’s in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh . They have seen many ups and downs but stayed afloat in the political mainstream . This time , however, it is different . Omar is not up against his rivals only but also against BJP’s anti-dynastic politics . Prime Minister Narendra Modi , Home Minister Amit Shah and others have urged voters to vote for anyone- BJP is not in the contest- but warned against voting for National Conference , and PDP of Muftis.. The fate of Mehbooba Mufti will be decided on May 25 when the constituency Anantnag that she is contesting from will go to polls , but today’s it is question of Abdullah family .
The Abdullah family and their party National Conference , beginning with its founder Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah since 1930s has been quintessential; part of Kashmir politics . But over the years , especially after the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019 , the party and the Abdullah family has been facing existential threat . This threat looms over Omar Abdullah, who is seeking entry into Lok Sabha from Baramulla constituency , abandoning family bastion Srinagar parliamentary constituency. Omar too had won from Srinagar seat for three times- 1998, 1999 and 2004.
Abdullah family which was once at its peak in Kashmir politics when Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah led agitation against Dogra rule in 1930s and 1940s and till he became the first prime minister of Jammu and Kashmir in 1948. Sheikh Abdullah who is reckoned till date as “ tallest leader of Kashmir”, rose in popularity when he abolished the big estates and distributed the land to croppers . this measure known as land to tiller made his popularity swing high among the tillers , though it did annoy a large sections of Hindu, Kashmiri Pandit landlords. But he fell out of grace of Government of India in 1953 when he was suspected of conspiring against the state of India . His National Conference was converted into Plebiscite Front that is traced as the route of secessionism and subsequent terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir . his popularity stayed intact even when he made a compromise for power – he returned to the Indian mainstream per se as chief minister in February 1975 . He stayed as Chief Minister till his death on September 1982 . His son Farooq Abdullah took over , but he could not match up to the standards and leadership stature of his father .Farooq and NC suffered a jolt – they were targeted during peak of militancy because they were considered pro-India , whereas the Indian leadership blamed NC for triggering militancy through the rigged elections of 1987 . NC got a new lease of life in 1996 when it won Assembly polls with a he majority , but it failed to maintain tempo in 2002. It had to wait till 2008 to come back to power in alliance with Congress. That government lasted till 2014 and in the Assembly polls held that year brought down party’s tally to lowest ever 15 seats. In 2019 , it did win in low-voting Lok Sabha polls , but now that is on test now .
Arun Joshi is author of “Eyewitness Kashmir; Teetering on Nuclear War and senior journalist based in Jammu and Kashmir, writes on South Asian affairs)
Disclaimer: This is the personal opinion of the author. The views expressed in this write-up have nothing to do with www.prameyanews.com.
