Bhubaneswar, Aug 20: Odisha may need to take a closer look at its earthquake preparedness. A new study by researchers from IIT Kharagpur has identified the Bay of Bengal as a potential source zone for future moderate-to-strong earthquakes, highlighting the role of tectonic stress, ancient fractures and massive sediment accumulation beneath the sea floor.
The findings are significant for Odisha because the state has experienced notable tremors from earthquakes originating in the Bay of Bengal, including the 2014 and 2025 events.
However, the study does not predict that a magnitude 6–7 earthquake will definitely strike Odisha. Rather, it indicates that geological conditions in parts of the Bay of Bengal could support stronger seismic events in the future, underlining the need for better hazard assessment and preparedness.
What Did the IIT Kharagpur Researchers Find?
The research examined seismicity in the Bay of Bengal using earthquake records, geological information, gravity and magnetic data, sediment thickness and stress-inversion modelling.
Researchers found that the region has recorded about 120 earthquakes since 1917, including several events above magnitude 6. The study suggests that the deep offshore area may be evolving into a more significant seismic source zone than previously assumed.
One of the important indicators used in the study is the b-value. Offshore areas recorded values as low as 0.72. In earthquake science, a comparatively low b-value can indicate higher stress conditions and a greater proportion of larger earthquakes relative to smaller ones.
Why Is Stress Building Under the Bay of Bengal?
According to the study, one major factor is the enormous amount of sediment deposited over millions of years by rivers including the Ganga and Brahmaputra.
The sediment layer in parts of the Bay of Bengal can reach roughly 13 kilometres in thickness. The weight of this sediment, combined with movements within the Indian plate, contributes to stress within the underlying crust.
Researchers also identified evidence that ancient fractures beneath the ocean floor may be reactivating.
The study found a relationship between recent earthquake epicentres and previously mapped underwater fracture zones, suggesting that these structures remain capable of generating seismic energy.
2014 and 2025: Two Earthquakes That Jolted Odisha
The concern becomes more relevant when Odisha's recent seismic history is considered.
On May 21, 2014, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake originating in the Bay of Bengal was felt across Odisha and neighbouring regions.
More recently, on February 25, 2025, an earthquake struck beneath the Bay of Bengal at 6:10 am. The National Centre for Seismology lists the event at magnitude 5.1, with a depth of 91 km and an epicentre about 286 km east of Puri and 297 km east-southeast of Bhubaneswar.
The 2025 tremor was felt in several parts of Odisha, including Bhubaneswar, Puri, Paradip and Berhampur, but no major casualties or property damage were reported.
Does This Mean a Big Earthquake Is Coming?
This is where the research needs to be understood carefully.
The study identifies increasing seismic potential and geological stress, but earthquake science cannot currently say exactly when an earthquake will happen or guarantee that the next event will exceed magnitude 6 or 7.
So, the findings should be viewed as a hazard warning and preparedness signal—not a prediction of an imminent earthquake.
Why Coastal Odisha Needs Special Attention
Odisha's coastal belt is particularly important from a disaster-preparedness perspective because large populations, ports, industries and expanding urban areas are concentrated along the coast.
The study suggests that seismic hazard assessments for the eastern coast may need to account more carefully for offshore intraplate earthquake sources, rather than focusing only on traditionally recognised earthquake zones.
For cities and industrial centres along the coast, earthquake-resistant construction, stronger building-code enforcement, emergency response planning and public awareness remain critical.
Could There Also Be a Tsunami Risk?
A major earthquake beneath the ocean can, under the right geological conditions, generate a tsunami. But the mere presence of earthquake activity in the Bay of Bengal does not mean a tsunami will follow every tremor.
Any tsunami risk depends on factors such as earthquake magnitude, depth, location and the nature of seafloor displacement.
Therefore, coastal communities should focus on monitoring and preparedness rather than panic.
The Bigger Message for Odisha
The latest IIT Kharagpur research does not say that Odisha is about to face a devastating earthquake. What it does show is that the Bay of Bengal may be more seismically important than previously assumed.
The combination of ancient underwater fractures, tectonic stress and heavy sediment loading deserves continued scientific monitoring.
For Odisha, the message is clear: earthquakes cannot be prevented, but their impact can be reduced through stronger buildings, better planning and greater preparedness.
As seismic research continues to improve our understanding of the Bay of Bengal, one question remains increasingly important for the coastal states: Are we prepared for the earthquake we cannot predict?
