By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: A cyclonic circulation will form over West Bengal, adjoining Bangladesh and North Bay of Bengal in next 24 hours. The reputed weather forecaster ECMWF has even predicted a low pressure area on and around October 3/4 over the aforementioned region.
The national weather forecaster of India, IMD model makes a forecast of cyclonic circulation over the above mentioned region in next 24 hours.
However, the cyclonic circulation may bring little rain to odisha in the next 24-72 hours.
DURGA PUJA – A WASHED AFFAIR?
Model guidance of IMD and ECMWF has hinted at a watered down Durga Puja in Odisha – coastal to western. The models make a forecast of formation of a cyclonic circulation over south west Bay of Bengal, close to Andhra Pradesh on and around October 7. The cyclonic circulation may intensify into a low pressure area. The LPA will track north-northwest direction and cross AP coast on October 9.
Under the influence of the system, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh are going to record moderate to heavy rainfall on and around October 10,11 and 12.
RAINFALL ACTIVITIES IN ODISHA RISE FROM OCT 8
The models of IMD and ECMWF indicate a rise in rainfall activities from October 8. South Odisha districts and adjoining districts in Andhra Pradesh may record around 20mm rain on Oct 8.
Rainfall of around 20 mm will lash the coastal districts in Odisha , including Bhubaneswar, on October 9. Central Andhra Pradesh districts are also predicted to record around d20 mm rainfall.
OCTOBER 11: Both ECMWF and IMD models predict rainfall in the range of 20-40 mm hitting districts in the coastal and western Odisha. Many of coastal districts in the State may record 40 mm rain on the day. State capital Bhubaneswar may record over 20mm rainfall.
The western districts like Sambalpur and Sundargarh are predicted to record over 20 mm rainfall. Many places in Chhattisgarh may also record rainfall in the range of around 20mm.
MODEL DIFFERENCE
The models of IMD and ECMWF defer on the extent of rain in the eastern and western coast of India. While both ECMWF and IMD agree on moderate to heavy rainfall over states like Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, ECMWF predicts that states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana may also record moderate rainfall on Oct 10, 11, 12. (see the main image)
However, IMD GFS predict rainfall in the following states only.
- Odisha
- Andhra Pradesh (Oct 8, 9 only)
- Chhattisgarh
- Madhya Pradesh
- Bihar
- West Bengal
- Jharkhand
