Bhubaneswar, Sept 16: Odisha is entering the last spell of monsoon with the Bay of Bengal already under close watch. A seasonal assessment has indicated the possibility of around three tropical cyclones developing over the north Indian Ocean between October and December. For a state that has repeatedly faced severe cyclones, the combination is enough to revive old October anxieties.
The current weather system is being closely monitored as it moves towards the Odisha coast. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated the influence of a cyclonic circulation over the northwest Bay of Bengal, north Odisha and adjoining West Bengal, with rain and thunderstorms expected in parts of the state. Recent forecasts have also pointed to heavy rainfall in several districts under the influence of a low-pressure system over the Bay.
Meteorologist Dr Sarat Chandra Sahu said the present system could develop into a low-pressure area over the east-central Bay and move towards Odisha, bringing heavy to very heavy rainfall. However, he added that its eventual intensity and track remained uncertain.
“September is not generally a peak period for cyclone formation, and even if the system intensifies, it may not strengthen significantly because of the relatively limited time it spends over the sea. At present, the more immediate concern is heavy rainfall over coastal and adjoining districts,” Sahu said, according to the current assessment.
The immediate system, however, is only part of the larger weather picture.
A seasonal assessment for the 2026 post-monsoon season has indicated that around three tropical cyclones could develop over the north Indian Ocean between October and December. More significantly, the projected Power Dissipation Index (PDI) is around 13.06 × 10⁶ knots³, against a 44-year average of 7.15 × 10⁶ knots³. PDI combines cyclone intensity, duration and frequency to indicate the overall energy dissipated by tropical cyclones.
That does not mean three cyclones will hit Odisha. Seasonal forecasts indicate the broader level of activity and cannot determine the track or landfall location of individual systems months in advance. Those details become clearer only after a system develops.
Yet October carries a particular emotional weight in Odisha.
The month is associated with Durga Puja and the festive season, but for thousands of coastal families it also recalls October 29, 1999, when the Super Cyclone had devastated large parts of the state and claimed nearly 10,000 lives. Entire villages were destroyed, communication systems collapsed and families struggled for food and drinking water in the aftermath.
“I still remember how suddenly the situation changed. We were looking at the wind and wondering whether our house would survive. Even now, when October approaches, I pay much more attention to every weather warning,” says Md Faisal of Tirtol, recalling the experience.
The memory has also crossed generations.
“I was not born when the 1999 cyclone had happened, but I have heard the stories from my parents. Whenever there is a cyclone warning, I understand why they become extra cautious,” says Shibangi, 15, of Bhubaneswar.
For farmers, the concern is less about the historical memory and more about what another spell of severe weather could mean for their crops.
“October is an important time for farmers. After months of work, strong winds or heavy rain at the wrong time can damage crops and delay harvesting. So when we hear about more weather systems developing, we keep checking the forecast before deciding what to do,” says Nirbhanda Naik, a farmer from Jagatsinghpur.
Odisha, however, is no longer the state that faced the 1999 Super Cyclone with limited warning and communication. Cyclone shelters, evacuation systems, community volunteers, improved forecasting and early-warning mechanisms have transformed the state's disaster response.
Technology has added another layer. Residents can now track developing systems through smartphones, television and official weather updates, while authorities can begin evacuation well before landfall when a serious threat emerges.
The challenge now is to remain alert without treating every low-pressure area as an impending disaster. A seasonal forecast of higher cyclone activity is a reason for preparedness, not panic.
For Odisha, October will bring the usual festive lights and celebrations. But along the coast, another ritual will continue: checking the Bay, following the forecast and remembering what happened when the sea turned deadly in 1999.
The fear remains. But unlike 1999, Odisha now has something else on its side—information, preparation and time to act.
( by Afreen Firdaus)
