Chennai, April 29: Actor Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has risen as the dominant challenger in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, leading the projections in the latest Axis My India exit poll. This signals a major shift in the state’s political dynamics. According to the survey, TVK is forecast to win between 98 and 120 seats in the 234-member Assembly, positioning it ahead of both the ruling DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (DMK+) and the AIADMK-led coalition. The results indicate that Vijay’s party could either emerge as the single largest entity or play a pivotal role in forming the next government.
The DMK+, led by Chief Minister M.K. Stalin, is projected to secure between 92 and 110 seats, placing it in second position, though still highly competitive. However, the forecast suggests the DMK-led alliance may face difficulty in securing a clear majority of 118 seats on its own. Meanwhile, the AIADMK-led alliance (AIADMK+), which includes the BJP and other partners, is predicted to win just 22 to 32 seats, reflecting a sharp decline in support and relegating the coalition to a distant third place in the race.
The exit poll, based on responses from 44,460 individuals across all constituencies, reveals a near-identical vote share battle between TVK and the DMK+. Both are expected to secure around 35 percent of the vote share, while AIADMK+ is trailing at approximately 23 percent. AIADMK leader Edappadi K. Palaniswami’s faction is facing significant challenges, as reflected by their 22 percent projection, highlighting the shifting political mood in the state.
The survey also highlights a strong desire for change among voters, with 35 percent citing it as the primary reason for their support, a trend that seems to be benefiting TVK. With no party or alliance projected to secure a clear majority, the upcoming election is expected to lead to a fragmented and competitive mandate.
As Tamil Nadu prepares for the official results on May 4, the Axis My India exit poll suggests that the 2026 elections could usher in a new political era in the state.
