New Delhi, June 8: Counterpoint Research has revised its global smartphone shipment forecast for 2025, citing rising uncertainty over U.S. tariffs and weakened consumer demand. The market intelligence firm has lowered its year-on-year shipment growth projection to 1.9%, down from its earlier estimate of 4.2%.
Despite the overall downward revision, most regions are still expected to see positive growth next year—excluding North America and China, according to Counterpoint’s latest Market Outlook Smartphone Shipment Forecast Report. The firm noted that the unpredictability of trade policy and the potential for increased tariffs are key factors clouding the outlook.
“Price increases from cost pass-throughs remain a significant concern, especially with the tariff situation still fluid,” said Liz Lee, Associate Director at Counterpoint Research. “All eyes are on Apple and Samsung due to their strong exposure to the U.S. market. While tariffs have influenced our revised forecast, softening demand in North America, Europe, and parts of Asia is also a major contributor.”
Lee noted that Apple is still expected to post shipment growth in 2025, driven by the solid performance of the iPhone 16 series in the first quarter. She added that premiumisation trends continue to support demand for high-end devices in emerging markets like India, Southeast Asia, and the Gulf region—offering long-term momentum for Apple.
The forecast assumes a relatively stable tariff landscape through 2025. However, any shift in trade policy or escalation in tariff rhetoric could disrupt pricing strategies, supply chains, and ultimately, consumer purchasing behavior.
Associate Director Ethan Qi also pointed to Huawei as a standout player in the evolving global smartphone market. “Huawei is expected to be a bright spot this year,” he said. “With sourcing issues for key components easing, the company is positioned to gain market share, particularly in the mid-to-lower-end segments in China.”
(With agency inputs)
