Bhubaneswar, April 14: The upcoming monsoon season may bring below-normal rainfall across Odisha, raising concerns over agriculture and water availability. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), most districts in the state are likely to face a rainfall deficit, except Nabarangpur, Gajapati, Kalahandi, Nuapada, and Bargarh.
The IMD, in its forecast issued on Monday, stated that large parts of the country, barring southern and northeastern regions, are expected to receive less-than-normal rainfall between June and September. Overall, India is likely to record around 92% of its normal monsoon rainfall.
Weather patterns indicate that La Niña conditions are currently weak and gradually shifting towards a neutral phase. However, the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) has projected the possible emergence of El Niño conditions after the onset of the southwest monsoon. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral at present.
Experts suggest that the IOD may turn positive in the latter half of the monsoon, which could improve rainfall conditions. However, reduced snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere between January and March is being cited as one of the reasons for the anticipated weak monsoon.
A deficient monsoon could significantly impact agriculture, particularly paddy cultivation, which depends heavily on seasonal rains. Meteorologists note that cyclonic activities and a positive IOD phase could still help improve rainfall distribution.
In contrast, private weather agency Skymet Weather has offered a relatively optimistic outlook, suggesting that Odisha may receive near-normal rainfall, despite a nationwide shortfall.
Agricultural meteorology expert Dr. Surendranath Pashupalak said that El Niño may develop by mid-July, but its impact on Odisha is likely to be limited. The monsoon is expected to reach the state by June 15. While overall rainfall may remain normal, its distribution could be uneven, with short spells of heavy rain followed by dry periods. June may see slightly below-normal rainfall, while July and August are expected to remain near normal, he added.
