Bhubaneswar: Modi – Trump Bromance had a 70mm display on the World screen in blockbuster shows like Howdy Modi in Texas and Namaste Trump in Gujarat.
The camaraderie between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President-elect Donald Trump again rocked the world screen recently when PM Modi became one of the first world leaders to congratulate Donald Trump on his historic win in the presidential polls.
PM Modi on X wrote, “Heartiest congratulations my friend @realDonaldTrump on your historic election victory.”
On the same night, PM Modi called on US President-elect Donald Trump over telephone to congratulate him on his stunning victory.
PM then wrote on X, “Had a great conversation with my friend, President @realDonaldTrump, congratulating him on his spectacular victory. Looking forward to working closely together once again to further strengthenIndia-US relations across technology, defence, energy, spaceand several other sectors.”
As per details shared by India's MEA spokesperson, PM Modi spoke to Donald Trump. He said, “We Look forward to work with him closely. During the call, the two leaders discussed that both India and US will work for the betterment of the people, And for global peace and prosperity." The MEA spokesperson added the leaders reiterated the importance of the India-US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership for the benefit of both countries.
Moreover, as reported by ANI, during the phone-call, Trump called India a ‘magnificent country’ and Modi ‘magnificent man’. He also had reportedly said in the phone-in conversation, “the whole world loves PM Modi.”
Weeks ago during US Election campaign, Trump called PM Modi a "total killer".
Since Donald Trump’s stunning victory in the presidential election in the United States has enormous domestic and international implications, how Don 2.0 will pan out for India.
The Key takeaways are given below.
MODI – TRUMP BROMANCE
- First, Modi government had the experience of dealing with Donald Trump, and more so, the Modi govt had dealt with him largely well in his first term (2017-21), compared to US allies and partners, pertaining on issues that matter like security and the economy.
- During the Don 1.0, Trump and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi have an affinity towards each other and India will likely bank on the personal relationship, not diplomacy alone, to drive policy.
- It is likely both leaders will seek to build on that personal rapport to advance shared interests.
- Indeed, Trump mentioned Modi positively during the campaign and that both have already spoken since the victory testifies to their personal dynamics and the importance of deepening the US-India partnership.
- Beyond the leaders’ personal rapport, it is very likely that both establishments will also have officials who are broadly familiar with one another, their world views and strategic imperatives.
- And that dynamic should bode well to focus directly on the specifics of cooperation from January 2025.
- The US-India relationship will be driven by interests, not values, over the next four years, marked by a heavy dose of transactionalism and reciprocity.
INDO – US – CHINA TANGO
Eminent strategic researcher K Nachiappan spells that
- Second, affinity aside, there remains one broad structural condition that should necessitate and sustain dialogue – their specific relationship and competition with China.
- China has served as a glue, bringing Washington and New Delhi to negotiate and clinch a series of agreements that help address their security balance with Beijing and the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
- But New Delhi have to remain acutely attuned to how a second Trump administration deals with Beijing and whether the bipartisan accord in Washington to remain tough vis-à-vis China will be sustained.
TRUMP’S CHINA POLICY
- As per Nachiappan, the US policy focus to restrict China from accessing and developing cutting-edge technologies through a panoply of export controls will probably sustain.
- Trump will also likely remain committed to augmenting the US role in Asia to maintain US primacy given Chinese assertiveness and that will find takers in New Delhi just as the Modi government irons out impending border issues with Beijing.
THE QUAD SHOW
- A big question for both countries pertains to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and whether the ongoing focus on using the mechanism to provide public goods through cooperation on issues like health, climate change, and technology will continue?
- Oor whether the Quad will revert to a security-centric initiative?
- He maintains that security cooperation will remain relevant and a priority.
ECONOMY JITTERS
- Third, it is likely India will face some turbulence on the economic front. A vote for Trump boils down to reforming and renewing the US economy and using trade measures like market access commitments and coercive tactics like tariffs to achieve that outcome.
- Trade was a flash point between both countries during the first Trump administration. Trump will likely raise or threaten the use of tariffs to bend the bilateral trading relationship in America’s favour.
- Trump will have no qualms over adhering to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules when it comes to trade and will have little regard for countries that use the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism to resolve trade squabbles.
- The Modi government will have to be less defensive and nimble on trade issues, should these coercive tactics be deployed.
- Bilateral trade in goods and services was roughly $200 billion a year, and should likely increase as investment opportunities expand for both countries, given the ongoing realignment of supply chains that binds India and the US more than before.
- That said, India will also have some clout to engage with a rising middle class that absorbs more American goods and services.
- The US will remain one of India’s critical economic partners and probably the most important partner on technology issues.
IMMIGRATION PUSHBACK
Immigration is a potential flash point and fault line in the bilateral relationship, writes strategic researcher K Nachiappan
- Fourth, India will have to brace for some pushback on immigration.
- Trump’s agenda was heavily focused on economic concerns, especially inflation and wages, and immigration.
- There is a heavy consensus to reverse the Biden-era immigration attitudes that have led to dramatic levels of illegal immigration, which considerably inflamed domestic public opinion.
- India is implicated in more legal immigration (through the H-1B Visa framework) to the US and there is hope that those levels remain consistent but that prospect remains highly uncertain.
New Delhi might have to make clarifications and statements of how Indian immigrants, generally high-skilled, contribute to US economic strength and the bilateral relationship.
