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Bhubaneswar, Nov 12: A possible cyclonic storm is brewing over the Bay of Bengal, with several weather models indicating potential intensification around November 17. However, uncertainty remains over its track and landfall location, with models suggesting different possibilities.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a cyclonic circulation currently lies over the central Andaman Sea and adjoining areas. It is likely to develop into a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal on November 13 and intensify into a depression around November 15.
While the European model indicates a possible movement towards the Andhra Pradesh–Odisha coast, other models suggest that the system could head towards Bangladesh or Myanmar. The IMD has not yet issued a clear forecast regarding its trajectory or potential impact.
Dr Sarat Chandra Sahu, Director of SOA University's Centre for Climate and Environment, said the system could intensify into a cyclonic storm and potentially make landfall between Kavali and Machilipatnam in Andhra Pradesh on the night of November 19 or the morning of November 20.
If this happens, weather conditions in Odisha may change around November 17–18, with rainfall likely in Ganjam, Gajapati and Puri. Between November 19 and 21, southern districts, including Koraput, Nabarangpur, Malkangiri and Rayagada, may receive moderate to heavy rainfall.
Meteorologist Biswajit Sahu said the system could develop into a cyclone around November 17. Although it may initially move towards Andhra Pradesh, it could later change direction towards West Bengal, Bangladesh or Myanmar.
He added that Odisha's weather impact would depend on how close the system passes to the state's coastline. Cloudy conditions are possible around November 18–19, but it is too early to predict rainfall intensity and wind speed.
The IMD is closely monitoring the system, and a clearer picture of its track and intensity is expected once it develops into a depression.
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