As Indus Water Treaty is in abeyance, what does the future stands for Indo – Bangladesh Ganga Water Treaty

Water Treaties Raise Questions for Pakistan and Bangladesh

In a significant geopolitical development following a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, India announced on Wednesday, April 23rd, 2025, that it is placing the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan 'in abeyance' with immediate effect. This decision, taken in response to the attack that killed 26 people, signals a potential major shift in regional water politics, raising immediate questions about the operational status of the treaty, the potential impact on water flows to Pakistan, and the broader implications for water-sharing agreements with other neighbouring countries like Bangladesh.

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Background of the Indus Waters Treaty

The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank and signed in 1960, governs the sharing of waters from the Indus river system between India and Pakistan. The partition of British India in 1947 placed the headwaters of the Indus and its tributaries largely in India (the upstream state), while Pakistan (the downstream state) remained heavily dependent on these waters for irrigation. Key irrigation infrastructure controlling flows into Pakistan fell within Indian territory, leading to disputes. The IWT resolved this by allocating the waters of the three eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi, ~33 MAF average annual flow) to India for unrestricted use, while the waters of the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, ~135 MAF average annual flow) were largely allocated to Pakistan. However, the treaty permits India specific uses on the western rivers, including domestic consumption, non-consumptive uses, agriculture, and crucially, run-of-the-river hydroelectric power generation, subject to detailed design and operational criteria. India is also allowed limited storage (up to 3.6 MAF) on the western rivers under the treaty's provisions.

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'In Abeyance' and its Impact

Holding the treaty 'in abeyance' implies a suspension of its operational provisions, although it stops short of formal abrogation. According to experts like Pradeep Kumar Saxena, a former Indian Indus Water Commissioner, this move opens up several possibilities for India as the upper riparian nation:

• Operational Freedom: India may no longer feel bound by treaty restrictions on reservoir operations, such as specific timings for flushing sediments from projects like Kishanganga on the western rivers. Flushing outside the monsoon period (stipulated by the treaty) could impact downstream flows during critical agricultural seasons in Pakistan.

• Design Flexibility: Restrictions on the design of hydroelectric projects on western rivers, which Pakistan has frequently objected to (e.g., Salal, Baglihar, Ratle), may no longer be considered binding by India for current or future projects, including several cleared post-2019.

• Data Sharing: India could cease sharing crucial flood data for the Indus system rivers, potentially hindering Pakistan's flood forecasting and preparedness, especially during monsoons.

• Storage: Restrictions on water storage capacity (beyond the permitted 3.6 MAF) on western rivers might be disregarded, allowing India greater control over flows, potentially impacting Pakistan's water availability.

• Inspections: Mandatory site tours and inspections by Pakistani officials to Indian projects, as required under the IWT, could be halted.

While the treaty lacks an explicit abrogation clause, experts suggest Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (regarding a fundamental change of circumstances) could potentially be invoked if India sought formal repudiation, citing Pakistan's alleged support for cross-border terrorism as that fundamental change. India had already issued a notice to Pakistan in 2024 seeking treaty modification.

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Concerns about Regional Water Sharing Reliability

India's decision has generated concern beyond Pakistan, particularly in Bangladesh. Prof. Aninun Nishat, a prominent Bangladeshi water resource specialist, remarked that suspending the IWT demonstrates India's potential willingness to use water as a political instrument when bilateral relations deteriorate. This action, he argued, casts a shadow over the perceived reliability of India's commitments in other water-sharing agreements.

Specifically, Prof. Nishat highlighted potential implications for the 1996 Indo-Bangladesh Ganga Water Treaty. This crucial agreement, which ensures minimum water flows to Bangladesh during the lean season, is due for renewal negotiations in 2026. He noted that critics in Bangladesh could now point to the IWT suspension as evidence that India's assurances might be contingent on political goodwill, potentially complicating the renewal process. This comes amidst existing complexities in Indo-Bangladesh water relations, such as the unresolved Teesta river sharing issue, and Bangladesh's recent diplomatic overtures towards China and Pakistan under its interim government.

Also Read: Pahalgam terror attack: Pak puts Shimla Agreement on hold

India's move to hold the Indus Waters Treaty 'in abeyance' marks a significant escalation in response to perceived cross-border terrorism, leveraging its position as the upstream state. While stopping short of formal abrogation, the suspension potentially frees India from key operational and design constraints imposed by the 1960 pact, carrying substantial implications for Pakistan's water security. Beyond the immediate bilateral context, this action raises broader concerns about the stability and reliability of international water-sharing agreements in the face of political conflict, potentially impacting trust and negotiations with other co-riparian nations like Bangladesh as crucial treaty renewals approach.