Sutanu Guru
Executive Director, C Voter Foundation
Apart from Telangana, three major states in the so-called Hindi heartland will have assembly elections by December this year. In all the three states, the BJP will have a direct contest with the Congress. Political pundits are calling it the semifinal before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections; though it is a silly thing to say as electoral contests in the last more than a decade have shown that the Indian voter behaves differently during assembly and Lok abha elections. Nevertheless, the face off will test the organisational and grassroots strength of the Congress as it gears up to recover lost ground in 2024. I personally feel that while will remain a potent force in the state, Rajasthan is a lost cause for the Congress. The anti-incumbency is too high, and the Ashok Gehlot versus Sachin Pilot interwar warfare has fatally damaged prospects for the December 2023 polls. At the same time, I think Bhupesh Baghel will lead the Congress to a repeat victory in Chattisgarh. Anti-incumbency is not very high and local voters approve of his performance as chief minister. Madhya Pradesh is almost like a lottery. Both the Congress and the BJP are evenly matched with popular leaders and strong organisation, grassroots bases. If asked to place a bet, I would wager that Kamal Nath once again becomes the heir minister of Madhya Pradesh after the Congress wins a narrow victory in December 2023.
What intrigues me the most is the manner in which Kamal Nath and Bhupesh Baghel are running the Congress campaign in their states. Just a few days ago, Dhirendra Shastri or Bageshwar Baba who has suddenly shot to fame and acquired a cult following of Hindu devotees received a royal reception at the residence of Kamal Nath when he visited Chindhwara. Ten of thousands of voters of the town, that Kamal Nath has represented as a Lok Sabha MP umpteen number of times, will be attending the preaching sessions being held by Bageshwar Baba. Just in case you were not aware, Bageshwar Baba is an unapologetic Hindutva ovary and has called for the re-establishment of “Akhand Bharat”. While not openly criticise other faiths, his sermons are a reflection of his passion for Hindu revivalism. Many secular and liberal (so-called) have already labelled Bageshwar Baba as a Hindutva bigot. And yet, the chief ministerial candidate of the Congress in Madhya Pradesh is assiduously wooing the Baba. How does that square with the self-professed declaration of the Congress as a truly “secular” party? What does Rahul Gandhi, who describes the Sangh Parivar and Hindutva to be the biggest threats to India have to say about his senior party colleague unabashedly promoting a champion of Hindutva? Kamal Nath is projecting his “Hindu” ness not only by wooing the likes of Bageshwar Baba, but has been travelling around Madhya Pradesh and promising voters that he will remove state controls from Hindu temples if he is reelected as the chief minister. That is as Hindutva as you can get. The reason is realpolitik. Nath knows that the Muslim votes will almost certainly come to the Congress no matter what; there is no strong regional party in the state to take away those votes like in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. So if asserting his Hindu credentials and appealing to voters who happen to be staunch Hindu devotees fetches him enough of those votes, it will be easier for him to become chief minister. Add promises of freebies like the Congress has successfully done in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka and you have a successful campaign in the making.
The sitting chief minister of Chattisgarh Bhupesh Baghel is doing something similar. Early. His tenure, his government displayed its reverence for the cow and even launched a policy to buy cow dung at favourable rates. For more than six moths, the ad campaigns run by his government on TV channels and newspapers tell the fascinating story of Ramayana where Lord Ram spent some time of his 14 year exile in Chattisgarh. All the sites and places Lord Ram is said to have visited and lived in are being touted as religious tourist destinations. In fact, almost all ad campaigns have a bit of Ramayana or Lord Ram. Eve during his rallies and public speeches, an increasingly confident Baghel openly flaunts his Hindu roots and his devotion to Lord Ram.
Both Baghel and Kamal Nath (even Ashok Gehlot) represent what used to be the real strength of the Congress till the 1970s: strong regional and state level leaders with their own grassroots support & connect. The decline and fall of the Congress stated when Indira Gandhi started promoting sycophants dependent o patronage as state level leaders. You can see how Sonia and Rahul Gandhi are not interfering with Baghel and Nath as they flaunt their Hindu credentials. That is another remarkable change that has swept across India since the 1990s. Prior to that, people mocked and laughed at you if you professed to practice Hindu politics. Liberals still do. But post the Ram Mandir movement, Hindus are increasingly asserting their religious identity and roots. Good or bad, that is a reality. Good politicians like Kamal Nath and Bhupesh Baghel understand reality and work accordingly.
Disclaimer:
This is the personal opinion of the author. The views expressed in this write-up have nothing to do with www.prameyanews.com.
