By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar:Thirteenth year running since the last census conducted in 2011. The pandemic applied brakes on census work, green signal for which was given by the Union Home Ministry in 2019. A new Census would have been out by 2022. But the timeline get strayed away. Country’s updated census is nowhere in sight.
Meanwhile, the State Bank of India Research has released its 2024 Census projection report on Wednesday. The report says median age of India is expected to increase from 24 years in 2021 to 28-29 years in 2023/24, thereby; India will be still one of the youngest nations in the world, and less than the world’s median age also.
The report estimated the total population of India between 138-142 crore in 2024.
DEMOGRPHIC SHIFT IN INDIA
The 2024 Census projection report by SBI indicates slower population growth, and falling incremental growth in the southern states. The findings listed below.
- SBI research reveals downward trajectory of the vital chip measuring population explosion – the average annual exponential growth rate.
- The annual exponential growth rate projected to decline from 2.20% in 1971 to ~1.00% in 2024
- As a consequence, the national population may be somewhere in the range of 138-142 crore in 2024
- State-wise incremental share in total population growth reveals the share of southern states, chiefly Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on decline (vis-à-vis 2011)
- Northern states, led by UP and Bihar (~33% share in incremental growth) to drive the growth
- North and Eastern regions together to have ~52% share in entire population (51% in 2011)
- East and southern regions show a fall in share from a decade-plus ago numbers
- Data regarding babies born (after adjusting infant mortality rate from total live birth) also indicate that both North India and East India are driving the overall population growth.
- In the southern region, where addition to yearly babies (after adjustment) are declining uninterruptedly.
INDIA AMONG YOUNGEST NATIONS
- The median age (mid-point of population size of a country) of India is expected to increase from 24 years in 2021 to 28-29 years in 2023/24.
- It is still one of the youngest nation in the world (and also less than the world’s median age (30.4 years)
- India fares quite well on this parameter with China whose median age now comes to 39.5 years against 34.5 years in 2011.
- The demographic dividends can be huge and a growth multiplier in coming decade for India.
- Only Nigeria, Phillipines and Bangladesh have a lower median age than India.
POPULATION PORTENDS
- Northern states continue to be the major population driver, shows the incremental growth chart of 2024 vis-à-vis 2011.
- Uttar Pradesh and Bihar combined contributes to almost 33% of total incremental population
- SBI Research finds the incremental population growth in Uttar Pradesh at around 20% – the highest in the country
- Bihar followed UP with an incremental growth rate of around 13%.
- Incremental growth rate least in Uttarakhand.
- Madhya Pradesh incremental growth in 2024 over 2011 higher than that of 2011 over 2001.
- This shows population is rising, not stabilising.
- Population stabilisation exhibited by 8 states like Odisha, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
BABY BOOMER STATES
The SBI research report finds the north and eastern states, excluding Odisha, as baby boomer states in the country. The findings are given below.
- North India – news babies born in 2001 were 6.6 mn, 2011 – 7 mn, 2024 – 7.6mn
- East India (mainly Bihar, Jharkhand) – 2001 – 5.5mn , 2011- 5.8mn, 2024 – 6.3mn
- South India show decline. 2001- 4.3mn 2011- 4.2mn 2024- 4.1mn
- West India minor increase, especially due to rise in Gujarat.
JOB SEEKERS PIE UP
As per the report, the working age population is also witnessing an increasing trend since 1971 and has been projected to reach 64.4 % in 2021, and further increase to 65. 2 % in 2031
- As per OECD, currently about 67% of India’s population is in the working age group.
- Approximately 25% of the incremental global workforce over the next decade will come from India.
- By 2030, India’s working age population might exceed 100 crores.
- On the other hand, the population is rapidly ageing in the developed world.
WOMEN POWER
The SBI census projection report has made a big revelation. It said up to 34 years age brackets, female percentage share is higher than male share in 2024.
- Till the 2011 census, this demographic shift had not been witnessed in the country, the report said.
INDIA URBANISING FASTER, ODISHA SLOWER
A glance at the report reveals the following urbanisation trends in the country..
- India in 2024 has around 75-80 million plus population cities.
- Bhubaneswar will be the new million plus city in the country.
- Uttar Pradesh leads with the number of new million plus population cities in the country.
- The average rate of urbanisation in the country has been estimated at 4.2%
- 13 out of 30 states have a slower rate of urbanisation than the national average
- Rate of urbanisation in Odisha and Jharkhand estimated at mere 2.3% - means the urban population in Odisha has risen by mere 2.3% between 2011 and 2024.
- But Jharkhand is more urbanised than Odisha, as the urban population now constitute a share of 26% (means 1 in every four in Jharkhand come from urban areas)
- Rate of urbanisation in Chhattisgarh (4.2%) is higher than Odisha.
- In 2024, population residing in urban areas in Odisha up at 19% from 16.7% in 2011
- In Chhattisgarh, 27.4% of total population reside in urban areas in 2024 as against 23.2% in 2011.
- Himachal Pradesh, Bihar and Odisha are the 3 states where the urban population in proportion to rural population has been lowest in the country. (HP -10.3%, Bihar-12.4%, Odisha-19%)
- Kerala urbanisation rate explosive.
- The State’s growth in urban population between 2011 and 2024 has been an explosive 29.7 percent. The urbanpopulation jumped to 77.4% in 2024 from 47.7% in 2011
