Bhubaneswar, October 18: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the possible formation of a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal by October 21.

According to IMD sources, the low-pressure system is expected to move west-northwest towards the central and adjacent west-central Bay of Bengal. However, there have been no reports indicating the development of a deep depression or cyclone at this stage.

IMD scientist Uma Shankar Das shared an update on his X handle, stating: “A cyclonic circulation is currently active up to an altitude of 1.5 km over the South Andaman Sea and the adjacent southeast Bay of Bengal, which could lead to the formation of a low-pressure area over the region by October 21.”

Forecasts from different models vary slightly in terms of timing. The ECMWF model anticipates the formation of the low-pressure system on October 24, while the IMD GFS and NCEP models predict it may form slightly earlier—around October 22 and October 21, respectively. The IMD's Extended Range Forecast (ERF) suggests a moderate 30-40% chance of cyclogenesis in the west-central Bay, while the ECMWF sub-seasonal outlook indicates a 20-30% probability for the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay between October 20-27.

While there is a moderate probability (30-40%) of a depression forming over the west-central Bay, the IMD has not issued any warnings regarding a deep depression or cyclone at this time.

This year, Odisha has witnessed the formation of 16 low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal, surpassing the usual 12-14 systems, which have brought widespread rainfall across the state.