Odisha: Is another cyclone on the horizon?

Bhubaneswar: Bhubaneswar, the capital city of Odisha, has been experiencing a meteorological rollercoaster that has left its residents reeling. From scorching heatwaves causing sunstrokes to unexpected torrential downpours, the city's weather patterns have become increasingly erratic. As climate experts scramble to understand these sudden shifts, a looming question hangs over the coastal state: Is another cyclone on the horizon?

Two Extremes of the Weather Spectrum:

Bhubaneswar, often called the "Temple City" of India, has always been known for its hot and humid climate. However, recent years have seen the city grappling with weather conditions that are pushing the boundaries of normalcy.

"In my 40 years of living in Bhubaneswar, I've never seen such dramatic swings in weather," says Ravi Mohanty, a retired schoolteacher. "One day we're practically melting from the heat, and the next, we're wading through flooded streets. It's becoming increasingly difficult to predict what each day will bring."

The data backs up Mohanty's observations. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Bhubaneswar recorded its highest-ever temperature of 45.8°C on May 11, 2023, surpassing the previous record of 45.5°C set in 1985. This extreme heat led to numerous cases of heatstroke, with local hospitals reporting a 30% increase in heat-related admissions compared to the previous year.

Yet, barely a month later, the city was grappling with a different challenge altogether. June 2023 saw Bhubaneswar receiving 448.3 mm of rainfall, a staggering 262% above the normal June average of 123.8 mm. This unseasonal deluge caused widespread flooding, disrupting daily life and damaging infrastructure.

Climate Change: The Elephant in the Room

Dr. Sujata Karthikeyan, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, believes these extreme weather events are unmistakable signs of climate change.

"What we're witnessing in Bhubaneswar is a microcosm of the global climate crisis," Dr. Karthikeyan explains. "The rapid urbanization of the city, combined with increasing greenhouse gas emissions, has created a perfect storm for these weather anomalies. The urban heat island effect exacerbates heatwaves, while changes in atmospheric circulation patterns are leading to more intense and unpredictable rainfall events."

A study published in the journal "Climate Dynamics" in 2023 supports Dr. Karthikeyan's assessment. The research found that the frequency of extreme weather events in coastal Odisha has increased by 37% over the past three decades, with Bhubaneswar showing one of the most significant upward trends.

The Cyclone Question

Given Odisha's history with devastating cyclones, including the super cyclone of 1999 and more recent ones like Fani (2019) and Yaas (2021), the erratic weather patterns have naturally raised concerns about the possibility of another major cyclonic storm.

Sources at the IMD, urged caution but not panic:

"While it's true that the Bay of Bengal has been showing increased cyclonic activity in recent years, it's important to note that not all unusual weather patterns necessarily lead to cyclone formation. However, the conditions we're observing – warmer sea surface temperatures and increased atmospheric instability – do create a more conducive environment for cyclogenesis."

The IMD's data reveals a troubling trend: the frequency of severe cyclonic storms (wind speeds exceeding 118 km/h) in the North Indian Ocean has increased from 1 per year in the 1970s to 3 per year in the 2010s. This statistic underscores the need for enhanced cyclone preparedness in coastal cities like Bhubaneswar.

Urban Planning: A Critical Factor?

As Bhubaneswar grapples with these meteorological challenges, urban planners and policymakers are being forced to reassess the city's infrastructure and disaster preparedness strategies.

An anonymous source at the BMC, acknowledges the need for adaptive measures:

"We're working on a comprehensive climate resilience plan for the city. This includes improving our drainage systems to handle sudden heavy rainfall, creating more green spaces to mitigate the urban heat island effect, and strengthening our early warning systems for extreme weather events."

The Bhubaneswar Development Authority has already begun implementing some of these measures. In 2023, the city initiated a project to create 200 hectares of urban forests, aiming to reduce ambient temperatures by up to 2°C in the surrounding areas. Additionally, a state-of-the-art weather radar system was installed in partnership with the IMD, enhancing the city's ability to forecast and prepare for severe weather events.

Looking Ahead: Adaptation and Mitigation

As Bhubaneswar continues to navigate its weather woes, climate experts emphasize the need for both short-term adaptation and long-term mitigation strategies.

Dr. Nayak, an environmental economist at the Odisha University of Agriculture and Technology, stresses the importance of community involvement:

"While infrastructure improvements are crucial, we also need to focus on building community resilience. This includes public awareness campaigns about climate change, training programs for disaster response, and incentivizing sustainable practices among residents and businesses."

The Odisha State Disaster Management Authority has taken note of these recommendations. In 2023, they launched a mobile app called SACHET that provides real-time weather alerts and safety instructions to citizens, reaching over 500,000 users in its first month.

Innovation vs Unprecendented Weather Challenges

As Bhubaneswar stands at the intersection of unprecedented weather challenges and innovative solutions, its journey serves as a cautionary tale for coastal cities worldwide. The volatile swing from extreme heat to flooding rains, coupled with the ever-present threat of cyclones, paints a vivid picture of the complex climate realities facing urban centers in the 21st century.

Yet, amidst these challenges, Bhubaneswar is also emerging as a potential model for climate resilience. Through a combination of cutting-edge technology, forward-thinking urban planning, and community engagement, the city is striving to adapt to its new meteorological normal.

As residents of the Temple City look to the skies with a mix of apprehension and hope, one thing is clear: Bhubaneswar's weather story is far from over. Whether it's battling heatwaves, managing floods, or preparing for the next potential cyclone, the capital of Odisha is writing a new chapter in urban climate adaptation – one that cities around the world would do well to read closely.