Global Food Output Hits Historic Highs: Cereal Production to Breach 3 Billion Tonne Mark
For the first time in history, the world is on track to produce over 3,000 million tonnes of cereal grains. According to the latest data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global cereal production in 2025 is being fueled by exceptionally strong harvests of wheat, rice, and coarse grains across major agricultural regions.
The FAO has adjusted its global forecast upward to a massive 3,003 million tonnes. This surge is largely attributed to better-than-anticipated wheat output in Argentina, the United States, and the European Union.
Wheat and Rice Lead the Charge
Argentina is poised for a record-breaking wheat season, thanks to favorable weather and an increase in sowing area. Similarly, barley production has boosted global coarse grain figures. For rice—a staple for millions—the outlook is positive. The FAO has specifically noted improved prospects in Indonesia due to expanded farming efforts. Additionally, better crop conditions in Bangladesh and Japan have pushed the global rice production forecast for 2025-26 to a record 558.8 million tonnes.
Future Planting and India’s Role
Looking ahead to the 2026 winter crop, planting is already underway in the Northern Hemisphere. While parts of the US and Italy face some dryness, the overall sentiment is positive. In a significant development for South Asia, both India and Pakistan are expected to increase their wheat acreage, driven by government support and attractive market prices.
In the Southern Hemisphere, early rains in Argentina are helping maize crops recover, while Brazil continues to expand its maize farming to meet heavy export demands.
Stocks Reach Multi-Decade Highs
We aren't just growing more; we are storing more. The FAO report highlights that global cereal stocks will swell to 925.5 million tonnes by the end of the 2026 season. This includes a sharp rise in wheat reserves in India and China. The "stocks-to-use" ratio—a key indicator of food security—is projected to hit 22.3 percent, the highest level seen since the early 1990s.
Trade and Utilization
With abundant supplies, the utilization of cereals is expected to jump by 2.1 percent, driven by the demand for food and animal feed. Global trade is also flourishing, with a predicted 3.3 percent growth. Stable prices are encouraging renewed imports from nations like Pakistan and Türkiye, ensuring that this record bounty reaches markets around the world.
