Bhubaneswar, Oct 29: Even as Cyclone Arnab continues to affect weather conditions, another low-pressure system is brewing over the South Andaman Sea. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the existing cyclonic circulation could intensify into a low-pressure area within the next 24 hours, potentially by Thursday.
So far, the IMD has only forecast the formation of a low-pressure system. There is no official confirmation yet on whether it will intensify further into a depression or a cyclonic storm.
However, forecasts from the US-based Global Forecast System (GFS) model suggest that the system could gradually intensify into a cyclone. According to this projection, the system may move towards the Odisha–West Bengal coast around November 1–2 before tracking along the coastline towards Bangladesh.
The GFS model also indicates a possible significant drop in atmospheric pressure, with projections mentioning values ranging from 977 to 900 hPa. However, this forecast remains uncertain and has not been confirmed by the IMD.
In contrast, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model suggests that the developing system could move towards the Andhra Pradesh coast around November 2.
The differing projections highlight considerable uncertainty regarding the system's future intensity and trajectory. Further updates from the IMD will be crucial in determining whether the low-pressure area develops into a cyclonic storm and which coastal regions could be affected.