By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: The rising power play of India in Asian affairs is striking. For the first time, the Asia Power Index measured a rise in the country’s power standing in Asia, and the country surpassing Japan to occupy the 3rd in the power ranking list, behind China and United States.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s key policy imperatives of fast tracking the India growth story to the third largest in the world and making the country a prime influencer in the region seem paying off.
The 2024 edition of Asia Power Index, launched by the Lowy Institute in 2018, has measured a rise in India’s stature. The report, however, has underlined that India’s pace of power play is slow, when seen the backdrop of its resources.
The agency does an annual measure of power dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region, and to determine the power shift or balance evaluates 27 countries across the Asia-Pacific, examines their ability to shape and respond to the external environment. The Index focuses on both the material capabilities of states and the influence they exert on the international stage.
SUPERPOWERS IN ASIA
Power is defined by the Index as the capacity of a state to direct or influence the behaviour of other states, non-state actors, and the course of international events.
In this power prism, the report has been crystal clear that the superpowers in Asia are USA and China. The power in Asia is a bipolar game, the report declared, though a renewed dynamism is shown by 11 countries.
ADVANTAGE CHINA OVER USA
The Asia Power Index measures China establishing a lead over USA in the power play. The comparative advantage analysis reflects a favourable trend for China in the vital arenas of defence networks, military capability, resilience, diplomatic influence and economic relationship.
USA has an advantage over China in economic capability, future resources and cultural influence.
The report, therefore, seems to be a wake-up call for the USA.
CHINA RISING?
Notwithstanding, China holding on to its superpower in the Asia Power Index dynamics, the report says the power of China is plateauing. The 2024 power index nowhere finds China emerging as the regional hegemon in Asia by eclipsing USA; rather it has found a new “settling point” – with power below USA but ahead of other Asian powers.
China scored a high of 72.7 in the Asia Power Index vis-à-vis 81.7 by USA. But with a score of 39.1, India straddles at number 3. The gap between India and China is wide. Japan with a score of 38.9 settles at 4th. The power index scores show how China is leading with a score close to USA.
CHINA’S WEAKNESSES, INDIA’S STRENGTHS
The dragon country’s sluggish economic growth post Covid-19 shock is proving a drag-in for it, despite having a strong edge in connectivity with world or Asia. China performed poorly in economic capability. Despite a lead in economic relationship parameter, the 2024 analysis recorded no growth in the vital arena too. Inbound investments slowed down. The country is also less dominant in trade relations. The average share of imports from 26 other Asia power countries is down.
In the given backdrop, this year’s Asia Power Index casts doubt on the narrative of continuously surging Chinese economic support and ever-growing investment for the region.
“Ultimately, China faces too many long-term constraints to live up to this expectation. Its score for Future Resources — a measure projecting the future distribution of economic, military, and demographic resources — has fallen precipitously since 2020,”the report added.
On the contrary, the report says, “India’s great strength in Asia is the resources it brings from its huge population, landmass, and economy — already the world’s third-largest in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP).”
ADVANTAGE INDIA?
The 2024 Asia Power Index has finally seen a reversal of fortune for India, with it narrowly surpassing Japan to now rank 3rd for overall power in Asia.
It says, “Strong post-Covid economic growth saw India increase its Economic Capability by 4.2 points. It also grew well in all other resource measures, especially Future Resources, where its score increased by 8.2 points. This growth reflects the fact that India’s youthful population may well deliver a demographic dividend over the decades ahead, unlike many other countries in Asia, including rival China, that are rapidly ageing and whose workforces are contracting.”
MODI-PLOMACY
Undaunted by Congress criticism, salient impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s whopping 82 foreign visits since 2014 – widely known as Modi diplomacy - has been measured with distinction in the 2024 Asia Power Index.
The report says, “India’s Diplomatic Influence also rose in the 2024 Asia Power Index. Experts surveyed evaluated Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s global leadership and strategic ambition more highly. India increased its tempo of diplomatic activity in 2023, participating in the sixth-highest number of dialogues with Asia Power Index countries. Both these results suggest that India’s strategy of non-alignment has modestly benefited its global standing.”
INDIA’S WEAKNESSES
- Economic relationship with Asian counties
- Poor defence network in the region. But some progress noted in 2024 like sales of Brahmos to Phillipines.
- In 2024, India’s position outside the network of US security alliance cooperation was typified by the emergence of the “Squad” — a group comprising the United States, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia with a more overt security role than the longstanding “Quad” including India.
INDIA – AS INFLUENCER vs UNDER INFLUENCE
TRADE: In trade, India has an influence, means country that rely of India, on countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Myanmar.
But the influencers – means India’s reliance on them- are China (12.4%), USA (11%), EU (10.8%), UAE (7.2%), Saudi Arabia (4.8%).
The above data highlighted India’s vulnerability.
INVESTMENT: India Influencer for countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Australia and USA. But the share of investment from India in USA and Australia is 2% and 2.3%, respectively.
ONLINE SEARCH: When USA with a share of 18% is the country most searched on internet in India, 14.7% in USA searched India online. 9.2% in India searched China on internet, but 0% on India in China.
Pakistan country searched online by 13.6% in India, but in Pakistan nearly half of the population (42%) searched India on internet.
7.2% in India searched Russia on Internet, and 12 % Japan. In top -5 searches by India, EU countries don’t figure.
BANGLADESH emerges as the top searcher on India online.
This highlights the influence of India on other countries.
MIGRANTS IN INDIA
The report resources reveal the following.
- 87.3% of migrants in India are from Nepal
- 48.7% of migrants in India are for Pakistan.
- 34.6% are from Myanmar
- 26.8% from Sri Lanka.
- 8.8% from New Zealand.
Migrants Settled In India
- 51.9% from Brunei
- 33.6% from Bangladesh
- 28.2% from Nepal
- 13.2% from Pakistan
- 9.4% from Sri Lanka.
INDIA’S UN ALIGNMENT
The study by the agency revealed the following.
- India is Russia and North Korea’s fourth most closely aligned country in UN voting.
- India is US’ 12th most closely aligned country in UN voting.
- Vietnam is India’s most closely aligned country in UN voting.
