Arun Joshi
In less than few weeks’ time, Indo-China standoff in eastern Ladakh would be entering fifth year . April 2024 is approaching with no sign of the de-escalation in the military situation between the Indian and Chinese armies. China is throwing new terms of engagement on the table, and on the ground it is showing no signs of moving back to the military position as it existed prior to April-May 2020.
This is a bigger challenge for India than China as the latter’s position is offensive. India is hoping against hope that the matters would be resolved through dialogue at the military commanders’ level or through diplomatic channels. This process has been going on for the past four years without any formidable results in sight. Now when it is imminent that the situation is all set to enter fifth year, it will bear on the security strategies of India. So the situation demands that the new look and assessment of the situation is taken with a goal of making China to see reason in going back to the situation of four years ago. And the fact is that China will not oblige India for its own strategic goals. So what one can see happening in the foreseeable future is the things getting complicated further, as all the diplomatic and military-dialogue options have been nearly exhausted. The challenge and how to counter it demands new thinking , and the beginning has to be made from eastern Ladakh only . It cannot eb that other issues will get addressed without taking this situation into picture, both at micro and macro levels
Perhaps with these challenges in mind , the Chief of Defence Staff Gen. Anil Chauhan observed that “ unsettled border disputes with China will continue to counter remain the most formidable challenge that India will face in the foreseeable future .” While speaking at a conclave on the “ strategic outlook of India and the future role of the Indian Airforce in Combat , the CDS ‘ address on “ Rise of China and its implications for the world , cautioned that like all disputed borders , “ there will be a tendency by the adversary to create new facts or markers like toponymy or cartographic aggressions to create a new narrative.”
These are challenges which India will have to confront with all the diplomatic dexterity. The need of the hour is for India to secure its strategic interests and mitigate risks.. It is where new outlook and strategies are required . These will have to assess the progress or no- movement forward as regards the situation on the borders, as also to think of newer ways beyond the military commander level talks , 21 rounds of which have not brought about the desired results . In the 21st round of talks on February 19 , the Indian side strongly pressed for resolution of the remaining points of concern in Despang and Demchok along the Line of Actual Control where Chinese troops are reluctant to move back , but China remained adamant not to concede any ground.
The issue before India , let it be clear is not only to resolve all the issues regarding strategic irritants in eastern Ladakh , but also to ensure that there is no repeat of the same. That’s a huge task . So far, India has achieved limited results , and the final goal with regard to the LAC is still far away. If India reaches this goal , which at the moment looks quite difficult given the adamancy of China , it will have to impose its irreversible authority and position on the border . The next task would be to have new relationship with China and show its assertion in the geopolitical region of the neighbourhood and extended neighbourhood . These are not easily accomplishable tasks.
Arun Joshi is author of “Eyewitness Kashmir; Teetering on Nuclear War and senior journalist based in Jammu and Kashmir, writes on South Asian affairs)
Disclaimer: This is the personal opinion of the author. The views expressed in this write-up have nothing to do with www.prameyanews.com.
