Mamata Mohanta's resignation from the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Rajya Sabha, followed by her joining the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), marks a significant shift in Odisha's political landscape. This move raises questions about the BJP's strategy to capitalize on the situation and the potential implications for the BJD and the state's political dynamics.
Impact on BJD and the Rajya Sabha seat
Mohanta's exit has reduced the BJD's strength in the Rajya Sabha from nine to eight, creating a vacant seat in the Upper House of Parliament. Given the BJP's numbers in the Odisha state Assembly, it is poised to claim this seat. The critical question is whether the BJP will re-nominate Mamata Mahanta, thereby reaffirming its commitment to her and leveraging her influence in the Kudumi community.
BJP's strategic calculations and repeating Mamata Mohanta
Re-nominating Mamata Mohanta could serve multiple strategic purposes for the BJP:
Consolidating support in the Kudumi community: Mamata Mohanta, a prominent leader of the Kudumi community, has accused the BJD of sidelining her. By sending her back to the Rajya Sabha, the BJP could solidify its support within this community, which is crucial in the tribal-dominated Mayurbhanj district.
Sending a positive message: The decision of BJP to support Mamata again for the upper house would be seen as a commitment to addressing the grievances of neglected leaders and communities. This move could enhance the party's image as an inclusive and responsive political entity.
Political leverage: If the BJP fails to re-nominate Mamata, it risks being perceived as merely using her to weaken the BJD. Repeating her would demonstrate a long-term strategic vision, potentially attracting other disgruntled BJD leaders and MPs to the BJP.
Mamata Mohanta's resignation and subsequent political realignment present an opportunity for the BJP to strengthen its foothold in Odisha and enhance its position in the Rajya Sabha. Repeating Mamata Mohanta for the vacant Rajya Sabha seat appears to be a strategically sound decision, capable of addressing multiple objectives for the BJP.
Other potential candidates
While Mamata Mohanta appears to be a strong contender, other names are also being considered for the vacant Rajya Sabha seat. Notably, BJP state president Manmohan Samal is a prominent figure in the race. His leadership played a crucial role in the BJP's recent electoral successes in Odisha. Despite losing in the elections and missing out on a government position, Samal's contribution could be rewarded with a Rajya Sabha seat.
If sources are to be believed, Samal may be offered a ministerial berth in the Narendra Modi government, in case the BJP nominates him for the vacant seat.
However, with only 18 months remaining in Mamata's term, the party might prefer to retain her, given the strategic advantages.
Broader political implications
The BJP's focus on attracting leaders from the BJD and other parties stems from its need to strengthen its position in the Rajya Sabha. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, lacks a majority in the Upper House. With 225 members in the Rajya Sabha, the NDA requires 113 MPs for a majority. Currently, the BJP has 86 MPs, and its allies contribute an additional 15, bringing the total to 101. Support from an independent MP and seven other MPs takes the count to 109, leaving the NDA four short of a majority.
Future prospects
The BJP is likely to continue its strategy of recruiting MPs from other parties to bolster its Rajya Sabha numbers. The BJD, with its significant representation, remains a prime target. Given the political situation of the regional party in Odisha, after it lost the 2024 elections, the BJP might target to lure BJD MPs to strengthen its position in the Rajya Sabha.
Re-nominating Mamata Mohanta could be a strategic move to attract other BJD leaders, offering them a template for a secure political future within the BJP.
