By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: Middle-East turmoil seems heading towards an all out war between Israel, Hezbollah , and Iran. There is an apprehension that Israel may pound nuclear facilities in Iran. Even, USA is in favour of de-nuclearising Iran at any cost.
As per an analysis by Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), between August 31 and October 7, the scale and geographic scope of violence have dramatically increased. The study added that the number of violent incidents related to Israel-Hezbollah conflict was up 4.5 times in the last week of September vis-a- vis the weekly average between Oct7, 2023 and Aug 31, 2024.
The big strategic forecast made by CSIS is the Israel-Hezbollah war may span to a much bigger geographic space, and could include Iran, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
WHY CHANCES OF ALL – OUT WAR?
The CSIS strategic analysis believes that an all-out war is ineveitable. The reasons it cited are given below.
- Israel’s military power may either compel Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire and move the forces away from the border or Israel fire power may weaken Hezbollah considerably so that it cannot think of strike on Israel.
- But the problem is if negotiations fail to establish a buffer zone along the Israel – Lebanon border, there is heightened possibility of all out war.
- The escalation to an all-out war may take into its fold countries like Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and others.
OBJECTIVES OF HEZBOLLAH
After 1979 Iranian Revolution, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) helped establish Lebanese Hezbollah. Iran sent 1500 IRGC advisers to Bekaa valley in Lebanon to build and run training camp for Hezbollahs. Hezbollahs were formed to fight with Israel.
For the Hezbollahs only, Israel in 1985 had decided to withdraw to a buffer zone on Lebanese border, and in 2000 to withdraw from Lebanon completely.
Hezbollah’s prime objective is to drive Israel out of Lebanon and destroy the State of Israel.
ISRAEL – HEZBOLLAH CONFLICT
The strategic experts observe that the dynamics between Israel, Hezbollah and Iran have completely changed. It was more so after the Hamas surprise cross-border attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, that left 1100 Israelis dead. The 1st anniverasry is being observed by the Israelis today.
The CSIS writes that after the Oct 7 Hamas attack, Israel’s risk tolerance has significantly changed. The Israel sides think in that way – If Hamas could kill 1100 Israelis in a surprise attack, what the better organized and armed Hezbollahs could do.
The CSIS has outlined following reasons behind Israel attack on Hezbollah.
- Israel views the close relationship the Hezbollahs have with Iran and Hamas as very grave.
- After the Oct 7, 2023 attack, more than 1.5 lakh people are displaced on both sides of Israel-Lebanon border.
- Over 62k civilians from northern Israel displaced.
- More than 92k civilians displaced from south Lebanon.
- The Israeli leaders’ strategy to contain Hezbollah is aimed at rehabilitating back the displaced civilians from northern Israel.
- Hezbollah has dramatically improved its military and stockpiled more than 1.5 lakh standoff weapons in Lebanon and Syria.
WHY WAR MAY SPREAD TO MORE GULF COUNTRIES?
The strategic view point of Israel has been that Iran has been a partner of Hezbollah, and its proxy forces are active in countries like Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. Therefore, Middle-East watchers fear on an all-out war encompassing more geographical areas.
GROUND INVASION BY ISRAEL LIKELY TODAY
The CSIS strategic experts see Israel launching a ground incursion into south Lebanon in order to flush out Hezbollah forces from Israel – Lebanon border, pushing them up to or past the Litani river.
In the present circumstances, Israel would like to bring up a buffer zone it had from 1985 – 2000.
The strategic importance behind Israel’s likely ground incursion is to foil any Hamas like attack, which took place on the same day last year, from the southern Lebanon side.
FIRE FROM SKY – LIKE US AND ALLIED FORCE AIR STRIKE ON SERBIA
As the ground incursion requires large number of ground forces, in 2006, Israel sent 30k troops, Israel may continue its sustained large-scale air campaign against Hezbollah and Iran. Israel may bomb the Iranian arms shipment to Hezbollah. The Israeli large-scale air attacks this time may be on parts of Beirut and Bekka valley.
In order to put a cost on Iran, Israeli army may go for massive air strike on Iran’s oil facilities on Oct 7 or 8. If former Israeli PM Ehud Barak is to be believed, Israel may launch a symbolic attack on the military target related to Iran’s nuclear progrrame.
As per nuclear expert James Action, any attack by Israel or even, USA, on Iranian N-facility is not going to dent Iran's N-capability, rather it would harden its resolve to acquire N-weapons.
He explained the rationale behind israel's attack on Iran's N-facilities. "Iran wants to annihilate Iran's N-capability in order to extinguish chances of future N-attack on Israel by Iran.
INDIA IMPACT
All indications from the Middle-East hint at escalation and an all-out war breaking out there, as both Israel and Iran-Hezbollah are in no mood to seize the strategic advantage. In such a scenario, how it will be panning out on India is given below.
- Air fares may see a spike following the heightened tensions
- Crude oil price may break the $100/bbl leading to jacking up of fuel – diesel and petrol - prices in India,, which may have a cascading impact on high inflation, and high inflation may impact Indian economic growth.
- India still imports 2/3rd of its oil requirements from middle-east countries.
- No impact likely on investor sentiments. But the caveat is an all-out war may spike the crude prices dampening investor sentiments.
- Israel – Iran all out war will impact Indian exports severely.
- Iran is one of largest destination of Basmati rice.
- Gems and Jewellery export may be impacted, so too, tea and electronic products
- India’s petro import from Iran is 28%.
- Fertiliser prices may spiral out of control.
- India imports substantial amount of fertilizers from Israel
- Domestic food prices may spiral out of control.
