New Delhi, May 1: India is set to face a combination of cooler temperatures and wetter-than-usual conditions in May, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting above-normal rainfall, expected to exceed 110% of the long-period average (LPA). In its May 2026 forecast, the IMD highlighted that maximum temperatures across the country will likely remain normal to below normal, providing some respite from intense heat. However, higher-than-average daytime temperatures are expected in southern peninsular India, parts of the northeast, and northwest regions.

Night temperatures, on the other hand, are anticipated to be warmer than usual in most areas, with some pockets in northwest and central India, along with adjoining peninsular and northeastern regions, experiencing normal to below-normal minimum temperatures. The IMD also flagged an increase in heatwave days in certain areas, notably along the foothills of the Himalayas, parts of the east coast, and in Gujarat and Maharashtra, though the broader temperature outlook will remain moderate.

In terms of rainfall, the IMD anticipates favourable conditions for most parts of the country, with above-normal precipitation expected in most regions. However, areas in east and northeast India, along with east-central India, may receive below-normal rainfall. This weather outlook is shaped by the evolving oceanic conditions, with neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean gradually transitioning to El Niño. Climate models predict its full development during the southwest monsoon season. Simultaneously, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are in place, with the positive phase expected to emerge later in the monsoon season. The interplay of these climate drivers could impact rainfall distribution and temperature patterns in the coming months.

The IMD noted that the expected moderate daytime temperatures in many areas should benefit the late rabi crop harvest, although higher night temperatures and localized heat stress in some regions may affect crop yields, particularly during critical growth phases. Above-normal rainfall will likely enhance soil moisture levels, supporting preparations for the upcoming kharif season. However, excess rainfall in certain regions could disrupt harvesting activities and heighten the risk of crop damage due to waterlogging and fungal infections.