Southwest Monsoon to arrive early in Kerala: IMD Revises Onset to May 23-24
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its forecast for the onset of the Southwest Monsoon over Kerala, for its arrival possibly as early as May 23rd or 24th. This updated projection indicates a quicker commencement of India's crucial rainy season, several days ahead of the IMD's earlier estimate of May 27th and the traditional onset date of June 1st.
Monsoon Arrival over Kerala Expected Sooner
According to the IMD's latest update issued on or before May 20th, meteorological conditions are becoming increasingly favourable for the monsoon to establish over Kerala "during the next 4-5 days" from the time of the report. This advancement is supported by observations such as increased cloud formation, strengthening cross-equatorial winds, and consistent rainfall activity over the Bay of Bengal. Preceding this, the IMD had also issued advisories for heavy to very heavy rainfall along India's west coast, including Kerala, Karnataka, and the Konkan & Goa region, between May 18th and 24th, signaling building monsoon activity.
Implications for Agriculture and Preparedness
The timing of the Southwest Monsoon, which delivers approximately 75% of India's annual rainfall, is critical for the nation's agricultural cycle, food prices, and overall economic stability. The IMD's indication of an early onset, which has been a recurring pattern in recent years possibly influenced by changing climate dynamics, has prompted farmers in southern India to reportedly begin field preparations. However, agricultural experts and the IMD advise caution, noting that an early arrival does not inherently guarantee uniform or above-normal rainfall distribution across all regions throughout the season.
In Kerala, which annually welcomes the first monsoon showers on the mainland, local authorities are reportedly initiating pre-monsoon preparedness measures, including cleaning drives and ensuring drainage systems are functional, especially given past experiences with severe flooding. The revised forecast for an earlier monsoon onset over Kerala, by May 23rd or 24th, is been closely watched by various sectors across India. As atmospheric conditions align, all attention is focused on the Arabian Sea for the arrival and subsequent progression monsoon.
