By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: Another testing day for the pollsters and their exit polls. They have gone horribly wrong in Haryana. Indian psephologists need to do some rehash of their profession to regain credibility. After 2024 Lok Sabha prediction howler, Haryana projections proved a blooper.
Today, when the EVMs unlocked, the people’s mandate became clearer by the day. The psephology stood disgraced. Because, the exit poll predictions and the actual results have a hell and heaven difference. The exit polls cried loud about severe anti-incumbency. Alas, the ground results are 180 degree apart. It’s the triumph of pro-incumbency in Haryana.
HARYANA ELECTIONS
The elections to Assembly in Haryana took place on October 5. The voter turnout was 67.9% as against 68.3% in 2019 Assembly elections. The turnout was only 64.8% in 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. The male turnout was 68.93%, and female at 66.73%. The third gender turnout was estimated at 25.27%.
The exit polls present their predictions on the same day. Here is a look at what the Exit polls predicted on Haryana.
SAMPLE CHECK
- Dainik Bhaskar: Congress: 44-54 seats, BJP: 15-29 seats.
- C-Voter-India Today: Congress: 50-58 seats, BJP: 20-28 seats
- Republic Bharat-Matrize: Congress: 55-62 seats, BJP: 18-24.
- Red Mike-Datansh: Congress: 50-55 seats,BJP at 20-25
- Dhruv Research: Congress: 50-64, BJP: 22-32.
- Peoples' Pulse: Congress: 49-60 seats, BJP: 20-32.
Haryana Results 2024: ECI data
As per the Election Commission of India official results data, the Bhartiya Janata Party won 48 seats, Indian National Congress won 37, INLD in 2 seats and Independents in 3 seats. The results clearly show the polls as a two horse race. The ‘Third Force’ faced decimation in this election.
- BJP recorded its highest historic vote share in 2024 Assembly polls
- The party had won record 48 seats, 1 more than 47 in 2014.
- Party’s best ever performance.
- In 2019, party had won only 40 seats.
- The saffron party garnered around 40% (39.94) vote share.
- In 2019 Assembly elections, BJP’s vote share was 36.49%.
- BJP’s maiden win in 2014 had a vote pie of 33.2%.
- BJP vote share in 2024 up by nearly 4%.
- Indian National Congress vote share in 2024 is also the best at 39.09%, after 35.08% in 2009 Assembly polls.
- The party’s VS was 24% in 2014, 28% in 2019.
- Keeping the trend of perking up its vote pie, in 2024, the Cong party vote share took an 11% long jump. But failed to dethrone BJP.
- More Big Inferences: Following constituencies saw an eye-popping rise in voter turnout.
- Gurgaon – 16% up from LS polls ---- BJP won
- Faridabad – 14% up - -- do---- BJP Won
- Panchkula – 8.5% up ----do----- Congress won
- Ballavgarh – 14.635 up --- do---- BJP won
- Sonipat – 10.235 up ------do----- BJP won
- Karnal – 11.53% up -------do----- BJP won
- Badshahpur – 13.64%-----do----- BJP won.
- The results show how more than 10% voter turn out helped BJP win big
END OF THIRD FORCE?
In 2024 Haryana polls, the over 2 crore voters have seemingly have reduced the Third force to a crumb in the State. The ECI official data has the following takeaways.
- As both the main political parties had upped their vote shares, this election showcases weakening of the third force in Haryana.
- The Third force vote share shrunk to mere over 5%.
- However, the third forces – INLD Chautala – BSP combine – played a role in defeating either BJP or Congress candidates by three way division of votes in around 27-28 seats.
- Independents walked away with a chunk of votes that have denied victory to either BJP or Congress in as many as 2 seats.
- The main poll fight this election in the State has been between BJP and Congress only. The Third Force trailed poorly at 3rd place only.
- In Ambala Cantt seat an AAP turncoat and Congress rebel pushed Cong to 3rd place.
- In another seat, a gangster-politician garnered over 31k votes, making it a 3-horse race.
- In Uchana Kalan, BJP won by 39 votes, as Independent Virender Ghogharian chipped way with 31,273 votes.
BLOW TO AYA RAMS, GAYA RAMS?
The Independents could register win in only 3 seats and the Third Force won only 2 seats (INLD -2). The result there is little elbow room for the Aya Ram, Gaya Rams to enact their political drama this time.
A look at the poll history of Haryana reveals the following.
- The Third Force in Haryana gained toehold in Haryana in 1967 Assembly elections when the earlier avatar of BJP – Bhartiya Jansangh - won 12 seats, and Cong won 48. Independents won 16 seats and emerged as the 2nd largest group.
- Within 1 week, the Cong govt lost majority. The reason 12 Congress MLAs defected from the party, and along with 16 strong independent MLA group formed United Front. More joined the merriment and a news party Sayunkt Vidhayka Dal with 48 members. VHP leader Rao Birendra Singh was chosen leader of SVD, though he won first on Cong ticket. He became CM.
- There was an independent candidate Gaya Lal, who enacted a whole drama, whereby, like a pendulum swings to Congress side and then shifted to the opposite camp within 9 hours. And hence the name Aya Ram , Gaya Ram.
- However, the BJS coalesced with Janata Dal in 1977 to win the Haryana poll. And the third force present in the election was VHP (Vishal Haryana Party) led by Rao Birendar Singh.
- In 1978, it merged with Congress, when in its poll manifesto it had castigated Congress. The culture of party crossover begins. Another instance of Aya Ram Gaya Ram.
- In 1982, the Haryana polity had three horses – Congress, Lok Dal (led by Chaudary Charan Singh) and BJP (won 6 seats).
- The political fragmentation deepened in Haryana, when Bhajan Lal formed Haryana Janhit Congress in 2007 and bagged 6 seats in 2009 polls.
- The Third force cornered significant vote share in Haryana, elections after elections. But in 2024, the Third force and independents fared very bad.
