Bhubaneswar: The deep depression lying over southwest Bay of Bengal will intensify into Cyclone Fengal tonight. 

The cyclonic system will track north to skirt Sri Lanka coast and will keep moving north-northwest towards Tamil Nadu coasts, says IMD release. 

Model forecasts suggest the system making landfall between Chennai and Puducherry, precisely to the north of Puducherry on Nov 30 (3-5PM). 

The cyclonic system will impact as many as 4 states of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Telangana between Nov 29 and Dec 3.

TAMIL NADU IMPACT

A study of model forecasts from IMD, NCMRWF, ECMWF reveals the following impact likely on state of Tamil Nadu that is going to bear the brunt of Cyclone Fengal.

• From Nov 28 around 80kmph wind to sweep the places from Nagapatnnam to Puducherry.
• Rainfall in the range of 25-50mm will lash the places along the coastal region from Ramanthpuram to Puducherry from Nov 28/29. 
• On the landfall day on Nov 30, ECMWF predicts 100-250 mm rainfall  in the following districts
• Villupuram
• Chengalpattu
• Thiruvanamalai
• Kanchipuram

ANDHRA PRADESH IMPACT

The cyclonic storm Fengal, though, will make landfall in Tamil Nadu, will bring rainfall in the range of 25-50mm over most parts of the State of Andhra Pradesh. The model forecast suggests 2-10 mm rainfall in the entire coastal region of Andhra Pradesh from Nov 29 onwards.

• IMD model predicts 50-55 km wind speed over districts of 
• Chittoore
•  Nellore
• Prakasham
• Krishna
• Chittoore district will witness heavy rainfall on Nov 29/30

ODISHA IMPACT

The impact of cyclone Fengal will be felt over Odisha, too. Here is the type of impact described below. The State will record rainfall from Nov 30 to Dec 3, not continuously. The IMD and ECMWF model has the following prediction

• KORAPUT will record over 12mm rainfall on Nov 30
• The district will witness 1mm rainfall from Nov 30 – Dec 5
• BERHAMPUR may record 30mm on Nov 30.
• The rainfall in the range of 2-4mm will continue till Dec 5.
• BHUBANESWAR will record 5mm rain on Nov 29
• The State Capital will witness rainfall in the range of 12mm on Nov 30
• Some amount of rainfall in Temple Town may take place till Dec 5.
• CUTTACK may record 3-4mm rain on Nov 29
• The silver City may witness rainfall in the range of  5-6mm rainfall on Nov 30
• Some amount of rainfall in the city is predicted till Dec 5 
• Rainfall in the range of 2cm predicted for KEONJHAR between Nov 30 and Dec 1
• JHARSUGUDA may record 4mm rain between Nov 30 and Dec 1.
• The map of prediction shows most places in Odisha will record some amount of rainfall

CHILLY WEATHER

As per the model prediction of IMD and ECMWF, the maximum temperature in Odisha’s southern districts from Koraput upto Kandhamal will dip to around 24 deg C from Nov 29.

• The maximum temperature in whole of the State will drop to around 26 Deg C from Nov 29.
• From Gajapati to Baripada, the maximum temperature will drop below 24 deg C on Nov 30
• On Dec 1, 2 the whole of Odisha will record chilly days as the mercury will plummet to below 24 deg C
• Maximum temperature will rise to around 29 deg C from Dec 5.
• The minimum temperature in the State will stay higher at 14-18 deg C due to cloudy weather.
• Going by the model predictions, the State will record chilly weather for almost 5 days.  

TELANGANA

The state of Telangana will record cloudy weather from Nov 29. However, the State will record rainfall in the range of 2mm-4mm from Nov 30 onwards. Model forecast suggests rain and cloud to cloud the skies of Telangana till Dec 7.

INCOIS PREDICTS ANOTHER LOW 

Even as IMD model is silent over formation any low pressure area post Cyclone Fengal, the country’s ace ocean research agency Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has predicted formation of another low pressure area over the southeast bay of Bengal, and the system tracking west will move towards the Tamil Nadu coasts in the first week of the December. 

The model hints at the system intensifying into a depression. If the model predictions hold true, then State of Tamil Nadu have to brace up with two back to back heavy rain bearing systems.