By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: Even as the 2024 South-west Monsoon withdrawal from west Rajasthan and Kutch will begin in next 48 hours, it is still active in other parts of the country. The model synopsis of IMD-GFS and NCMRWF suggest presence of a cyclonic circulation over west-central Bay of Bengal and another over Thailand due to an east west shear zone (a feature of active monsoon).
As the cyclonic circulation over Thailand will be moving westwards, in the next 24 hours, the two cyclonic circulations will merge. In the next 24 hrs, on Sept 23, a low pressure area will form over North West Bay of Bengal.
Keeping its westward tracking, the Low Pressure Area will move over the north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coast on September 24 towards Maharashtra.
As a consequence, rains in the range of 20mm will hit areas in south Odisha close to north Andhra Pradesh districts on September 23 and 24.
Along with the places in south Odisha, the model prediction forecast around 20mm rain in Bhubaneswar and Cuttack in the morning and noon hours.
The forecast by models predicts rainfall in other places like Nayagarh, Baripada, Keonjhar, Rourkela, Koraput, Kalahandi, Bolangir, Bargarh and Rayagada.
The low pressure will also bring rains in states like Telangana, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh.
2024 MONSOON REPORT
A look at the monsoon rainfall till September 21 notes down the following.
- All the states on the west coast, except Kerala and Karnataka, received bountiful rain.
- On the eastern coast, Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu have recorded excess rainfall to tune of 25-35%. But the rainfall over Odisha and West Bengal has been normal (actually 9% and 3% deficit, respectively.
STATES WITH EXCESS RAINFALL
- Rajasthan -74%
- Gujarat – 69%
- Maharshtra -24-36%
- Coastal Karnataka – 20%
- Telangana – 30%
- Andhra Pradesh – 35%
- Tamil Nadu – 25%
STATES WITH SCANTY RAINFALL
- Bihar – 27%
STATES WITH NORMAL RAINFALL
- Odisha – Though the State has recorded 1005.3 mm rainfall, it is 9% below the average rainfall recorded in the State
- Chhattisgarh -6% more,
- Madhya Pradesh – 12-19%
