Bhubaneswar: The year 2024 has been recorded as the warmest year on record.

NASA Thursday released its biggest findings on increasing heat waves, global warming that heat up the oceans deep down to record thermal expansion.

The deep down heating up of oceans doesn’t augur well for the coastal states, as a warm ocean deeper would brew more extremely severe cyclones that would prove devastating for them.

Odisha has been witnessing regular severe to extremely severe cyclones since 2019 in pre and post monsoon season.

Along with NASA research, an Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) report reveals how scary will the future of coastal states, including Odisha, in India.  

First, take a look at the NASA revelation.

NASA ON 2024 SEA LEVEL RISE 

NASA said, “Last year’s increase in global sea level was due to an unusual amount of ocean warming, combined with melt water from land-based ice such as glaciers.”

Elaborating further, the global apex space agency said:

• Global sea level rose faster than expected in 2024
• Mostly because of ocean water expanding as it warms, or thermal expansion. 
• According to a NASA-led analysis, last year’s rate of rise was 0.23 inches (0.59 centimeters) per year, 
• Compared to the expected rate of 0.17 inches (0.43 centimeters) per year.

The NASA release quotes NASA Jet Propulsion Lab researcher Josh Willis. 

He said, “The rise we saw in 2024 was higher than we expected. Every year is a little bit different, but what’s clear is that the ocean continues to rise, and the rate of rise is getting faster and faster.”

NASA FINDING DETAILS

• In recent years, about two-thirds of sea level rise was from the addition of water from land into the ocean by melting ice sheets and glaciers. 
• Only a third came from thermal expansion of seawater. 
• But in 2024……. comes a big TWIST….
• Two-thirds of sea level rise coming from thermal expansion.

NASA release quoted Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, head of physical oceanography programs and the Integrated Earth System Observatory. She said:

 “With 2024 as the warmest year on record, Earth’s expanding oceans are following suit, reaching their highest levels in three decades.”

NASA ARCHIVES

Since the satellite record of ocean height began in 1993, the rate of annual sea level rise has more than doubled. In total, global sea level has gone up by 4 inches (10 centimeters) since 1993.

NASA LESSONS ON SEA HEAT

There are several ways in which heat makes its way into the ocean, resulting in the thermal expansion of water. 

• Normally, seawater arranges itself into layers determined by water temperature and density.
• Warmer water floats on top of and is lighter than cooler water, which is denser. 
• In most places, heat from the surface moves very slowly through these layers down into the deep ocean.
• But extremely windy areas of the ocean can agitate the layers enough to result in vertical mixing. 
• Also, the massive movement of water during El Niño — in which a large pool of warm water normally located in the western Pacific Ocean sloshes over to the central and eastern Pacific — can also result in vertical movement of heat within the ocean.
• NASA studies say, deeper layer warming of oceans will lead to intensified cyclones, along with rising leave. 

IITM STUDY ON INDIAN OCEAN

A study led by Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, has delved into the evolving climate of the Indian Ocean and its future projections. The study has interesting findings that seem scary for coastal states.

• The Indian Ocean warmed at a rate of 1.2°C per century during 1950–2020.
• Climate models predict accelerated warming, at a rate of 1.7°C–3.8°C per century during 2020–2100.
• Maximum warming is in the northwestern Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea.
• The study is bang on the CYCLONE frequency. It says:
• Maximum basin-average temperatures in the Indian Ocean during 1980–2020 remained below 28°C (26°C–28°C) throughout the year
• Minimum temperatures by the end of the 21st century will be above 28°C (28.5°C–30.7°C) year around. 
• Sea surface temperatures above 28°C are generally conducive for deep convection and cyclogenesis.
• Heavy rainfall events and extremely severe cyclones have already increased since the 1950s and are projected to increase further with increasing ocean temperatures.

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