Bhubaneswar, Mar 10: A powerful El Nino event, possibly developing into a “Super El Nino,” could begin impacting weather patterns from July, raising concerns about irregular monsoon rainfall, rising temperatures, and drought-like conditions.
Meteorological assessments suggest the climate is currently shifting from the cooling phase of La Nina to a neutral phase, which lies between La Nina and El Nino conditions. Experts believe the El Nino phenomenon could strengthen gradually in the coming months and intensify toward winter.
According to noted meteorologist Surendranath Pashupalak, analysis of global weather models indicates that the neutral phase may weaken from May, with El Nino conditions likely to intensify from July onward. If the warming of the central equatorial Pacific Ocean continues, it could result in a Super El Niño, which often leads to irregular monsoon activity.
Scientists define La Nina when sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific drop 0.5°C below normal, while a 0.5°C rise above normal indicates El Nino. These ocean-atmosphere patterns influence weather systems across the world.
For Odisha, the possible development of a strong El Nino raises particular concern. Nearly 60 percent of agricultural land in the state lacks irrigation, making farmers heavily dependent on monsoon rainfall. If rainfall becomes irregular or declines, paddy cultivation, which requires more than 1000 mm of rainfall, could suffer significant losses, especially in upland and medium-upland areas.
Experts warn that El Nino conditions could also affect weather patterns into 2027. A similar situation occurred during the 2015–2016 El Niño event, which triggered severe climatic impacts in several regions.
However, there may be a possible balancing factor. Forecasts suggest the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could turn positive from April, which may help support monsoon activity. The potential influence of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), however, remains uncertain.
Meanwhile, temperatures across the state are already rising. Meteorologists predict the mercury could increase by 2–3°C within the next two days. Several places have already recorded temperatures between 36°C and 38°C, with the highest readings reported in Jharsuguda, followed by Titlagarh and Dhenkanal.
Experts say the coming months will be crucial in determining how strongly El Nino develops and how significantly it affects the monsoon season.
