Bhubaneswar, Jan 1: Odisha may experience an unusually long summer and irregular rainfall this year, with temperatures rising even during the monsoon, according to climatologists. Professor Surendranath Pashupalak, a leading weather scientist, has used long-term climate models to forecast extreme weather events for 2026.

Professor Pashupalak notes that global climate drivers such as the ENSO phases—La Nina, El Nino, and Neutral—and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) strongly influence rainfall patterns. Over the past five years, Odisha has generally received average to above-average rainfall due to La Niña. Currently in a La Nina phase, the state is expected to transition to Neutral conditions after January, lasting around three months, followed by a possible shift to El Niño by the end of June.

“El Nino conditions typically bring higher temperatures and reduced or erratic rainfall,” the professor explained. “Combined with a negative IOD, this could lead to below-normal rainfall this year.”

Temperature predictions indicate that February and March will see near-normal or slightly above-normal heat. From April, temperatures may rise further, and a prolonged summer could extend high temperatures into June, July, and August. The delayed and weakened monsoon could affect paddy cultivation, as crucial stages of crop growth coincide with the driest months. Dry ponds and water shortages could worsen the situation.

Odisha has experienced the effects of El Nino before: in 2023, the state suffered severe summer heatwaves, while in 2025, a La Niña phase resulted in a milder summer and good rainfall. This year, a prolonged winter has already been recorded due to La Niña, but the upcoming El Niño phase may bring challenging conditions for farmers and residents alike.