By D N Singh
The battle is virtually over who will be this time in West Bengal . Nandigram is going to decide whether Mamata Banerjee would stage a third time comeback or it would be her waterloo !
A question that even seasoned political analysts are not able to predict. However, stray poll surveys indicate at a gloomy picture for the incumbent chief minister.
Pollsters at ground zero foresaw a Mamata, who not only got provoked by the provocations by her arch rivals, the BJP, but she often lost her cool in a bid to retaliate to the tirades thrown at her.
The tactics adopted by the BJP were enough to tease a person who was up against the wall, trying to defend her citadel that is shaking under an impact of a multipronged attack from BJP, the Left and of course the Congress .
So many factors are going to play the roles on the outcome. “The campaign, that was nothing less than any high octane one in Indian politics so far, has charged the political atmosphere where the Prime Minister had to frequent” feels Subrato Ghosh, a Kolkata based poll analyst.
Peoples Pulse report has a claim which gives a huge edge to the BJP in about 160 seats while it finds Mamata in a firm footing in 70 seats while the Left is left with its 12 hard-core bastions.
Mamata Lost A Manager In Subhendu
That is a survey report. However,in this election Mamata fought against his protégé Subhendu Adhikari who had remained a very crafty campaign manager when he was with Mamata Banerjee. So that way it would not be prudent to underestimate him with all the saffron political fire power behind him.
Then after Mukul Roy’s exit the task for Mamata has become harder. And as regards Abhishek Banerjee, records reveal that , in the last Lok Sabha polls, in the constituencies monitored by Abhishek, the TMC did badly whereas, then, the constituencies looked after by Subhendu were mostly won by the TMC.
South Bengal May Be Crucial
South Bengal has maximum number of Assembly seats i.e. 126 seats in the 294 member assembly including Kolkata.
Here also, BJP is seen much ahead with 65 seats, while TMC walking away with 37 seats and close contest foreseen at 24 seats.
Thickly populated by minority (muslim) votes, the areas such as Mushidabad, North and South Dinapur and, of course, Malda can play a decisive role to an extent.
Those being the nightmarish predictions for Mamata, even in North Bengal can even be dampers for the TMC.
“ These are all surveys and still far to go. BJP is on a rampage and it can go more offensive for the remaining polls” said Arindam Chatterjee, political analyst.
“It would have been more productive for Mamata Banerjee not to be so reactive to the provocations by the BJP, like Naveen Patnaik did in 2019 general elections” quipped Chatterjee.
About the Author:
DN Singh is a Bhubaneswar-based senior journalist.
This is the personal opinion of the author. The views expressed in this write up have nothing to do with the www.prameyanews.com