Bhubaneswar: Satellite images of the well –marked low pressure area over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal shows intense convection.
The system lying in a favourable deep shear is witnessing higher divergence than convergence, which hints at further intensification of the system. The cloud formation will be more intense.
The data shows divergence value is higher than convergence for the system over the central and north-northeast Bay of Bengal, with satellite image indicating clouds extending over Myanmar.
At the 11:30 hrs this morning, the system, though in a favourable deep shear, has an unfavourable deep shear in the southwest, central and north Bay of Bengal. The deep shear is measured high at over 92km/hr (50knots) in the central, northwest and north Bay of Bengal, which may play spoilsport to the system’s upper level circulation, when the system move to the areas, resulting into weakining of the system.
WELL-MARKED LOW’S TRACK?
The wind flow pattern at the upper and mid troposphere suggests the system charting the north east direction. In the upper atmosphere, the westerlies are now blowing over peninsular India marking a trough and making a ridge over the Bay of Bengal, especially over the central and north Bay of Bengal.
As the system moves north to reach central Bay of Bengal, the westerlies will steer the system to the north east along the ridge.
The atmospheric model of INCOIS and ECMWF predict that the system after moving close to Odisha will veer to northeast towards Myanmar and dissipate over the land.
IMPACT ON ODISHA, EAST COAST INDIA
As per model forecasts, the system will be coming close to Odisha coast on April 10, and will be closer to Andhra Pradesh on April 9.
When the system moves closer to Andhra Pradesh – Odisha coast, some places in the Andhra Pradesh may record light rain of below 2mm on April 9, predicts the ECMWF model.
IMD predicts clouds on the skies of coastal Andhra Pradesh from April 8 onwards, however light convective rain to hit the coastal Andhra Pradesh districts around April 11.
From April 10, skies of south coastal districts in Odisha will see clouds. While ECMWF predicts very good rain on April 10 at some places over north and south coastal Odisha, IMD predicts light convective rain on 11 April.
The system is predicted to dissipate over Myanmar on April 11.
However, the forecast of IMD suggests that many places in Odisha, including Bhubaneswar, will be recording rain by around April 15, and convective rain activities are predicted at many places till April 17.
