By Sanjeev Kumar Patro
Bhubaneswar: Arabian seas will be hosting an extremely severe cyclonic storm in October in two consecutive years. This is a first after the year 2018. The ocean basin had churned extremely severe cyclonic storm Tej in the year 2023. A look at the cyclone history of the Arabian basin reveals that as far as cyclonic activities in the basin is concerned; October is the third busiest month after May and June.
In fact, since the year of 1800 to the year 2023, the Arabian ocean had recorded only 10 cyclones in the month of October. June is the peak month of cyclonic activities in the Arabian ocean basin. However, a look at the trend reveals frequent brewing of cyclones in October in the Arabian seas since the year 2018. Cyclone genesis occurred in 2019. The Covid-19 pandemic year of 2020 didn’t witness cyclone in October. October 2021 recorded Cyclone Shaheen, formed by the remnants of Bay of Bengal cyclone Gulab.
No cyclone witnessed in the year 2022 in the Arabian seas. ESCS Cyclone Tej formed in 2023 on October 16. And the year 2024 will again witness an ESCS in the Arabian seas.
OCTOBER CYCLONES LANDFALL PLACE
Historical data on the landfall of October cyclones in the Arabian seas reveals that the brunt is mainly borne by Yemen and Oman. Cyclone Tez formed last year in the south central Arabian seas. The ESCS tracked northwest ward to hit Al Maharah, Yemen.
Usually, cyclones in the Arabian seas form over the south east zone of the basin, as the sea surface temperature there is high enough to brew a cyclonic system.
PROBABLE CYCLONE IN ARABIAN SEAS
The weather models predict the upcoming cyclone genesis taking on Oct 10 over the south east Arabian seas close to Kerala-Karnataka coasts. The system is projected to track west-northwest along the western coast of India to move into the central Arabian seas by around Oct 15.
Given the strong easterlies at the upper level, the system will be steered away from the Indian coasts, and likely to make landfall between Iran and Pakistan coasts, thanks to steering of the system by the strong westerlies at the upper level.
But the western coast of India will record significant rainfall activities between Oct 10 and Oct 16.
CYCLONE POSSIBLE IN HOTTER BAY OF BENGAL?
The Madden Julian Oscillation will get active from October 7. And the cyclone genesis in the Arabian seas will happen by Oct 10. As per the NCICS prediction, the MJO will move to Bay of Bengal from October 17. The prediction is the MJO will remain active over southeast Andaman seas and the adjoining south China seas till November 5.
Since southeast Andaman sea zone is hotbed for cyclone genesis, the period between October 27 and Nov 5 will be on the watch out.
Odisha recorded following cyclones in October last and November first week.
- Data shows between 1990 and 2023, the months of October and November have recorded a total of over 22 cyclones
- But the landfall in Odisha is witnessed on only 4 occasions – 1999 (two in 1999, including super cyclone that hit Paradip on Oct 29), 2013 (cyclone Phailin) 2018 (cyclone Titli).
- In November, none of the cyclones had made landfall in Odisha since the year of 1990.
