Breakthrough in the Caucasus
In a stunning diplomatic achievement, the United States has brokered a landmark peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, bringing an end to a bitter and bloody conflict that has destabilized the South Caucasus region for over three decades. The historic deal, signed at the White House in the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump, represents a significant foreign policy victory for his administration and a potential realignment of power in a region long considered within Russia's sphere of influence.
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From Conflict to Cooperation
The agreement marks a formal end to the long-simmering conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous territory that, despite being internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, was populated mostly by ethnic Armenians and had been a source of contention since the late 1980s. Following a decisive military operation in 2023 that saw Azerbaijan regain full control of the region, this U.S.-brokered peace accord aims to move the two nations from a state of perpetual hostility toward a future of economic cooperation and normalized diplomatic relations.
At the signing ceremony, President Trump, flanked by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, announced that the two countries had committed to respecting each other’s territorial integrity and opening up diplomatic channels. Both leaders praised Trump's role in mediating the agreement and stated their intention to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
New Corridor and a Challenge to Moscow
Cornerstone of the agreement is the establishment of a strategic transit corridor through the South Caucasus, with exclusive development rights granted to the United States. This "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" is designed to facilitate the export of energy and other resources, creating a new economic artery in the region. The White House also announced separate deals with both nations to expand cooperation on energy, trade, and technology, and significantly, has lifted restrictions on defense cooperation with Azerbaijan.
These moves are almost certain to be viewed with irritation in Moscow. Russia has historically been the primary power broker in the region, but this U.S.-led initiative effectively sidelines it. The new transit corridor and enhanced U.S. influence could also serve to close a "blind spot" in international sanctions policy, making it more difficult for Russia to use the Caucasus as a route to evade economic restrictions.
Uncertain Peace
Despite the optimism at the White House, regional experts remain cautiously skeptical. They point to the long and troubled history of failed negotiations and violent escalations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, warning that the long-term success of this peace deal will depend heavily on sustained U.S. engagement. Key details, such as which companies will control the new transit corridor and the extent of Armenian and Azerbaijani involvement in its construction, remain unclear.
Furthermore, human rights organizations have criticized the Trump administration for not using the negotiations to pressure Azerbaijan on its poor human rights record, including the holding of hundreds of political prisoners. While the agreement represents a monumental step forward, its durability remains to be seen. It is a fragile peace, one that will require continued diplomatic investment to ensure it holds.
Core Points
Cessation of Hostilities: The U.S. has brokered a historic peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, bringing about a cessation of hostilities and ending a 35-year conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
U.S.-Led Economic and Strategic Initiatives: The deal includes exclusive U.S. development rights to a new transit corridor and expanded cooperation on energy, trade, and defense.
Challenge to Russian Influence: The agreement, brokered without Moscow's involvement, is seen as a move that significantly challenges Russia's traditional influence in the South Caucasus.
Fragile and Conditional Peace: Experts warn that the long-term success of the deal is not guaranteed and will require sustained U.S. diplomatic engagement to prevent a return to tensions.
