Southwest Monsoon hovers Early over Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) officially announced today, Tuesday, May 13th, the onset of the Southwest Monsoon over several key maritime regions. This arrival, noted as the earliest in these areas in the past seven years, signals the beginning of India's primary rainy season, with current conditions favouring its further advance and an overall forecast for "above normal" rainfall across the country this year.
Early Onset and Favourable Conditions
According to the IMD, the Southwest Monsoon has advanced into some parts of the South Bay of Bengal, the South Andaman Sea, the Nicobar Islands, and certain areas of the North Andaman Sea as of May 13th. This is significantly ahead of the normal onset dates, such as May 19th for the South Andaman Sea. The IMD forecasts that conditions are conducive for the monsoon to further advance over the South Arabian Sea, Maldives, Comorin areas, and more parts of the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea in the next three to four days.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD, indicated that several factors are supporting this early onset. These include higher-than-normal minimum temperatures over North India, the strengthening of requisite westerly and easterly wind patterns at different atmospheric levels, and sustained pre-monsoon rainfall over the south peninsular region.
Early Kerala Onset Expected, with Above Normal Rainfall
The IMD anticipates an early onset of the monsoon over Kerala, the entry point for mainland India, around May 27th, which is five days ahead of its normal date of June 1st. For the season (June to September), which provides over 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, the forecast is for "above normal" precipitation, quantitatively estimated at 105 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 880 mm.
The early arrival of the Southwest Monsoon, coupled with a forecast for above-normal rainfall, presents a positive outlook for India's agriculture-dependent economy and water resources. The IMD will continue to monitor the monsoon's progression as it advances across the country, typically covering the entire nation by mid-July.
