Re-arrival of Imran Khan in Pakistan politics is a recipe for troubles all around

By Arun Joshi Electorally, Pakistan’s Tehreek-i-Insaaf of former premier Imran Khan has won handsomely a majority of seats in the Punjab by-polls held on Sunday, in which the party won handsomely on 15 seats defeating  Pakistan Muslim League ( Nawaz)  in the heartland of the ruling party. This is no mean feat for Imran Khan who was ousted from his post in  April this year. Pakistani media, and observers are seeing this as a comeback moment for Imran ad the party.  There is an immediate analysis; the e ruling party PML- N lost owing to some of the hard decisions , raising of fuel prices and  imposing heavy taxation to meet the demands of the International Monetary Fund with which the Shehbaz  Government is seeking a US  2 billion dollar  deal to keep the economy alive in the distressing  scenarios . Or, it is the stunning  victory  because of the popularity of Imran who is referred in Pakistani politics as “ Kaptaan” or Captain because of his  accomplishments as captain of Pakistani cricket team. .Beyond this immediate brew of conclusions drawn in the aftermath of the by polls , it is to be seen what does it mean for Pakistan itself , and also outside of its geographical and political boundaries. As some of the analysts have  termed  Imran Khan’s performance as the harbinger of outcome of the general elections in the country. Pakistan is divided in its debate as to when  to hold the election – whether in 2023 until when the current term of the National Assembly lasts or there should be snap polls ./ Khan is keen to have the elections at the earliest so that he can cash on  the current mood in  Pakistan . It is dismal – the economic stress, worsening law and order situation  and the people losing faith in the system as the civilian  leadership is  working in a  confrontation mode with the  military  top brass, and now with the PTI on ascendancy these fights will see escalation . These, in all likelihood ,  will  spiral out of control, an indication thrown by the past history of Pakistan Let’s understand that this is not the problem for Pakistan alone. A destabilized  Pakistan will have its greater impact out of its borders, particular India . The political instability is a situation wherein  political and military forces in Pakistan while fighting  among themselves .always have sparked off controversies and situations  which  spill over to India- Pakistan , as is its habit of targeting India whenever it is in trouble, will do the same. India will have to stay watchful. The return of Imran Khan on the political horizon of Pakistan as a leading force , has other international ramificat0ns . Given the way the Imran Khan government before it fell  had accused the US of hatching the conspiracy along with the Opposition to oust him, firmly denied by  Washington as baseless, will again bring Islamabad and  Washington in a confrontational mode. All the slow progress  America -Pakistan relations have shown during the Shehbaz government  face an ominous future . A  downslide is a fair conclusion , and in these times when the US and China relations are nose diving, each accusing the other of forming alliances against  other , Pakistan, an Iron-clad friend of China will make a strategic shift . Why it matters to  India  to is not a rocket science . China believes  India is  working closely with Washington and the two are serving each other’s  interests, but the misperception of China is that it  also  believes that India is working at the behest of the US as an anti-China country . India  has its own reasons to call spade a spade to China . The Chinese troops are breathing down the neck of India in eastern Ladakh .  And at the same time , what  India has made clear is that it has its own independent foreign policy , it has firmly declined to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, despite suggestions in this regard by America and Europe. Since China and Pakistan serve each other’s economic interests as also share their hostility toward India , the shift in the political set up will spell problems for India . India will have to study each and every aspect of direction that Pakistan takes in the near future . Pakistan’s calculus is working against itself but it is also eyeing renewal of its anti-India campaign. About the Author: Arun Joshi is a senior journalist based in J&K. He has worked with Hindustan Times, Times of India, Indian Express, and The Tribune. He has authored “ Eyewitness Kashmir: Teetering on Nuclear War” and three other books. DISCLAIMER This is the personal opinion of the author. The views expressed in this write-up have nothing to do with those of prameyanews.com.