Bhubaneswar, August 13: Heavy rainfall is likely to continue across Odisha over the next week, weather expert and mythologist Prof. Surendranath Pashupalak has said, citing the influence of a depression over the region and the possibility of another low-pressure system developing over the Bay of Bengal.

According to Prof. Pashupalak, a low-pressure area that formed over the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a depression and is currently positioned over the West Bengal coast, moving in a northwesterly direction. The system is expected to move across Gangetic West Bengal towards Jharkhand and the northern Odisha-Chhattisgarh region, making the possibility of it directly crossing Odisha as a depression relatively low.

However, the system is expected to strengthen monsoon activity over the state, triggering widespread rainfall in several districts.

Parts of northern, central and western Odisha are likely to experience heavy to very heavy rainfall between August 13 and 15. Districts including Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj, Angul, Sambalpur, Sundargarh and Jharsuguda may receive significant rainfall during this period.

Rainfall intensity may decrease somewhat between August 16 and 18. However, high atmospheric moisture could continue to trigger localised showers and thunderstorms in several parts of the state.

Looking ahead, Prof. Pashupalak said ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF-EPS and NCEP-GEFS, along with deterministic forecasts, indicate the possible development of another cyclonic circulation over the east-central and northwestern Bay of Bengal around August 18-19. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is also expected to remain favourable for monsoon activity.

Some forecasts from ECMWF and IMD-GFS models suggest that a fresh low-pressure area could form around August 19-20. Even if the system tracks south of the present depression, it could bring another spell of widespread rainfall to central and coastal Odisha. However, its formation and eventual track remain uncertain.

Prof. Pashupalak also cautioned that heavy rainfall over the next 48 hours could pose risks to agriculture, particularly to newly transplanted or directly sown paddy in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Prolonged submergence and waterlogging for more than four to five days may damage young paddy seedlings.

At the same time, the rainfall is expected to benefit areas facing soil moisture deficiency by replenishing moisture and supporting tillering in paddy crops. However, prolonged waterlogging in upland fields growing vegetables, pulses and maize could increase the risk of root rot and other crop diseases.

Advising farmers, Prof. Pashupalak said priority should be given to maintaining proper drainage, particularly in northern and coastal Odisha. Water should not be allowed to accumulate in low-lying paddy fields or in vegetable, maize, pulse and groundnut crops.

Farmers in areas where sufficient soil moisture is already available have been advised to avoid additional irrigation. They should also consider postponing top-dressing with urea, micronutrient spraying and the application of other agrochemicals until August 15-16 to prevent fertilisers and chemicals from being washed away by heavy rain.

With high humidity and prolonged leaf wetness expected, farmers should closely monitor paddy nurseries and directly sown paddy crops for leaf folder infestation, blast disease and bacterial leaf blight.

Prof. Pashupalak further advised farmers to postpone activities such as weeding, intercultural operations and other fieldwork during the heavy rainfall period from August 13 to 15.