Bhubaneswar, Oct 12: A developing cyclonic system over the Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm and make landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast on October 28, according to forecasts cited in the report. The system, currently a depression, is expected to intensify into a deep depression on Sunday and become a cyclonic storm on Monday. It will be named ‘Arnab’ once it develops into a cyclone.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast cited in the report suggests that the storm could cross the coast south of Kakinada around 11:30 am on October 28, packing winds of 115–125 kmph and gusts of up to 140 kmph.

However, weather models differ on the likely landfall location. The ECMWF model indicates a possible landfall between Machilipatnam and Kakinada, while the GFS model suggests the system could cross the coast near Srikakulam. Meteorologists have cautioned that the cyclone’s track and intensity may change.

Odisha braces for heavy rainfall and strong winds

Although Odisha may escape a direct hit, the cyclone’s outer circulation could bring heavy to extremely heavy rainfall and strong winds across several districts.

Weather conditions may begin changing on October 26, with rainfall intensifying from October 27. October 28 is expected to be the most critical day, while heavy rainfall could continue on October 29.

The IMD has issued a red warning for Rayagada, Koraput, Ganjam, Gajapati and Malkangiri, where extremely heavy rainfall and winds of 60–70 kmph are possible on October 28.

According to Sharad Sahu, head of the SOA Meteorological Centre, the system could move northwards towards Koraput after making landfall in Andhra Pradesh. His assessment suggests that winds of 75–100 kmph and heavy rainfall could affect Gajapati, Ganjam, Rayagada, Malkangiri, Koraput, Nabarangpur, Kandhamal, Kalahandi, Balangir, Subarnapur, Khordha, Nayagarh, Cuttack and Boudh.

By October 29, the impact could extend to western and northern Odisha. Kendrapara, Jajpur, Balasore, Bhadrak and Dhenkanal may also experience winds of 60–80 kmph.

Cyclone track remains uncertain

The system was located over the east-central and adjoining southeastern Bay of Bengal on Saturday evening, approximately 820 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam.

It is forecast to intensify over the sea before approaching the Andhra Pradesh coast. Although it is expected to weaken after landfall, heavy rain and strong winds could continue across adjoining regions.

Residents, particularly in southern, coastal and western Odisha, are advised to monitor official IMD bulletins and follow instructions issued by local authorities.