The Biden administration’s decision to withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan by 9/11 this year is rife with consequences for the whole of the South Asia , which can that have obviously not been taken into calculation while announcing this decision. That this will have deep impact on the geostrategic landscape of South Asia which may create more problems for the U S than it has experienced so far.; momentous loss in terms of its image as the most powerful country , treasure of trillions of dollars and worst of all the body bag of its soldiers that landed all across American cities.
There is an apparent sense of urgency to say enough is enough in this decision that will be announced on Wednesday ( America) by President Biden. The ground was laid by the administration officials who briefed media on the crucial issue that has been dogging the US diplomacy for the past two decades .
“This is not conditions-based. The president has judged that a conditions-based approach . . . is a recipe for staying in Afghanistan forever. He has reached the conclusion that the United States will complete its drawdown and will remove its forces from Afghanistan before September 11th.” This assessment of the current situation in Afghanistan and the American recipe to move its troops from the war-torn country is also a recipe of future troubles in the region of South Asia.
Among the multiple areas of concern , three are most disturbing ones , which obviously have not been taken into account while taking this crucial decision that will define the future challenges for the American policy makers in the fields of defense and the way they will conduct the American policies in the international affairs.
America has been involved in Afghanistan since October 2001 , a little over three weeks after 9/11 shook the US and , the rest of the world . That was the most horrendous terror attack in the modern history . But that attack, which was neither first nor lost defined the new world order in which the subsequent actions of the Americans in Iraq based on willfully spread wrong information about Saddam Hussain pursuing nuclear and chemical weapons gave rise to what Samul Huntington had theorized as “ Clash of Civilizations.”
First, America will suffer from irreparable loss of credibility . No country would ever trust its strategies f intervention and the promised outcome . Ever since the era of President George Bush under whose watch 9/11 happened, Washington has failed to devise any particular that could have brought about peace in Afghanistan and decimated all sources of terrorism in South Asia. It committed a major mistake , though tactically it made a sense that time that it enrolled Pakistan in its war against terror. Its threatening note that “ either you are with us or terrorists” shook Pakistan that had its deep involvement in Afghanistan where it had sent Taliban to run its show , not , as many believe as its proxy , but its own extension . There is no disputing the fact Pakistan and Taliban were united by blood in a sense that Taliban was raised out of Afghan refugees, trained and armed by ISI of Pakistan in 1994, when during Benazir Bhutto was the Prime Minister of the country.
The Bush administration wanted to use Pakistan’s proximity to Taliban to help it in decimating terrorism . Pakistan obliged the US for dollars . The US knew the double-game that Pakistan was playing but it did not have many options . That option out of its strategic compulsion became albatross around its neck.
Secondly , now when it is withdrawing its troops, it is leaving the affairs of Afghanistan into the hands of Pakistan. At the moment Pakistan is under the economic, physical, political and geostrategic spell of China. It tends to serve Chinese interests , and that will straightway give access to China and Pakistan over the whole region.
This will create a situation, where India will have to defend its territory against the expansionist designs of China , and at the same time steer through the China-Pakistan nexus in Afghanistan. India is not on a strong footing vis-à-vis Afghanistan , because what all it has done is through the development of infrastructural development and its only supporter the Afghan government is tottering . Pakistan’s ISI and Taliban are relying on their hard power. It is pointless to deny the fact that Indian position in Afghanistan is vulnerable to terror attacks in by Pakistan-based terrorist groups or Taliban. India has suffered huge losses because of the terror attacks in the past.
Thirdly , an emboldened Pakistan , with the help of China, can pose a serious situation in Kashmir . It was not a coincidence that in 1989 when Soviet troops were driven out of Afghanistan , the terror groups , their tactics and arms were turned toward Kashmir. The repeat of that situation cannot be ruled out . India will have to be cautions of all this, and any Indo-Pak conflict will destroy peace in the region . The US intelligence report has already noted that “ any miscalculation can result in a full-scale war between “ the two nuclear-powered nations . That scenario is not just an imagination now as the American withdrawal would take off all pressures of Pakistan .
About the Author:
Arun Joshi is a senior journalist based in J&K. He has worked with Hindustan Times, Times of India, Indian Express and The Tribune.
He has authored “ Eyewitness Kashmir: Teetering on Nuclear War” and three other books.
This is the personal opinion of the author. The views expressed in this write up have nothing to do with the www.prameyanews.com