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Pakistan’s internal situation may disturb peace applecart with India on Kashmir

20/04/2021 at 12:48 PM

By Arun Joshi

Frightening images of rioting  emerging from Pakistan  and the failure of the government to curb violence  born out of the Tehreek-e-Labbaik or TLP ‘s  call  for action against those who indulged in acts of blasphemy in the western world  have portents of dislocating its immediate foreign policy objectives of repairing ties with India.

These fears are rooted in the history of Pakistan  . as and when internal troubles  rock Pakistan , it impacts Indo-Pak ties . In 2007, when lawyers launched anti-Gen. Pervez Musharraf protests  following dismissal of the chief justice  Iftikhar Chaudhary ,  a  hoped-for Kashmir solution retreated to  the obscurity  worsened by the 26/11 .

This time the protests by the TLP  are violent in its nature and shape- not only the clashes have  thrown normal life out of gear, the Islamist  party’s activists have taken policemen hostage, tortured some of them before releasing them after intense negotiations . the Government of Imran Khan is preoccupied in dealing with the crises at home by pandering to the extremist groups in more than one ways . On the other, it is struggling to retain the image of normalcy before the international community. But the world is less than convinced. French embassy in Pakistan has asked French nationals to leave Pakistan for they run the risk to their lives.

More intriguing is the timing of the protests . The rioting has  struck Pakistan at a time when there are attempts by India and Pakistan  to repair their ties that got frayed after the February 14, 2019 , Pulwama attack and the subsequent hostile acts against each other . The UAE has worked behind the doors  to bring about some initiatives  that could lead to improvement in relations between two nuclear armed neighbouring countries in South Asia . It has already facilitated a recommitment to the November 26, 2003 ceasefire at the Line of Control that divides Jammu and Kashmir between India and Pakistan.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi  has exhibited optimism that  the positive development of  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wishing  for “ cordial” relations with Pakistan on his country’s national day on March 23 and equally positive response  of  Imran Khan  have boosted the hopes of ties improving between the two countries. He , however, told an interviewer of Khaleej  Times  that the positivity of the relationship depends on the resolution of Kashmir issue. While he  put the onus on India  for creating  conducive atmosphere for the future dialogue and progress thereof, but the real fear is that whether the Islamists would allow Islamabad to move  ahead in this direction .

In diplomacy , the internal situation of any country  affects the foreign policy. That’s  truer  in the case of the countries involved in conflict , and India and Pakistan find themselves in this frame because of their history of hostility  between the two ever since the Partition on various  issues,  especially Kashmir.

The threat of recurrence  of such volatile situation is not ruled out because of a series of problems persisting in Pakistan – the growing fissures between opposition and  Prime Minister Imran Khan-led  Pakistan Tehreek-Insaaf government, split within the opposition ranks , and the growing extremism as also the divisions within the army into pro   and anti Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa camps..

This is an unmistakable sign of  weakened state of Pakistan . The government’s control  is close to zero  as t few sections  in the army have started questioning  his handling of the situation during riots and addressing issues of the protestors . They are demanding his removal by the army in the interest of the nation .

As the internal situation in Pakistan has alarmed the world,  because it demonstrates rise of Islamic extremism in Pakistan that can have repercussions beyond its borders . In its immediate neighbourhood Afghanistan where Taliban has become a power to reckon with and retains the potential to cause extreme destabilization in the country  is a byproduct of the extremism.. Taliban and TLP  are same . They want to replace the existing systems with the extremist ideology . Once the forces of extremism gain further steam in Pakistan and Afghanistan , it  would inevitably  chain Pakistan government’s capacity and capability to deal with its foreign policy goals in a cohesive manner .

Since India has already tasted the spill over  of Pakistani extremism in Kashmir , it will act more cautiously . It has not overlooked the fact that how a progressive step  of resumption of Indo-Pak trade was retreated post haste . That was a division within the government set up , but essentially it was done under the influence of the extremist forces that are having sizeable say in the establishment over there.

About the Author:

Arun Joshi is a senior journalist based in J&K. He has worked with Hindustan Times, Times of India, Indian Express and The Tribune.

He has authored “ Eyewitness Kashmir: Teetering on Nuclear War” and three other books.


DISCLAIMER

This is the personal opinion of the author. The views expressed in this write up have nothing to do with the www.prameyanews.com

 

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