Yesterday’s very severe cyclonic storm over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved north-north-westwards and intensified into an extremely severe cyclonic storm in the early morning (0530 hrs IST) of today, the 17th May, 2021. It lay centred at 0830 hours IST over eastcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 18.8°N and longitude 71.5°E, about 150 km west of Mumbai, 220 km south-southeast of Diu, 260 km southeast of Veraval (Gujarat), and 490 km east-southeast of Karachi (Pakistan).
It is very likely to move north-north-westwards and reach Gujarat coast in the evening hours of 17th& cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Mahuva (Bhavnagar district) during the night (2000 – 2300 hrs IST) of 17th May with a maximum sustained wind speed 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph.
- Konkan & adjoining Madhya Maharashtra: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls and extremely heavy falls at isolated places on 17th May and isolated heavy rainfall over north Konkan on 18th
- Gujarat: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely over Saurashtra, Diu and adjoining Gujarat region on 17th& heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Gujarat region and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Saurashtra on 18th Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall also likely over Kutch during the same period.
- Rajasthan: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely over south Rajasthan on 18th& heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Rajasthan on 19th May.
(ii) Wind warning
- Gale wind speed reaching 180–190 kmph gusting to 210 kmph is likely to prevailing over eastcentral Arabian Sea during next six hours
- Gale winds speed reaching 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph is likely to prevail along & off Maharashtra coast on 17th and gradually decrease thereafter.
- Gale wind speed reaching 90-100 kmph gusting to 110 kmph is prevailing over adjoining northeast Arabian Sea. It would gradually increase becoming 170–180 kmph gusting to 200 kmph from evening of 17th for subsequent 06 hrs and decrease thereafter
- Gale wind speed reaching 70-80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph is prevailing along and off south Gujarat & Daman and Diu coasts. It is likely to increase becoming Gale winds speed reaching 155-165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph along & off Gujarat coast (Amreli, Bhavnagar) Junagarh, Gir Somnath and 120 -140 kmph gusting to 165 kmph over Bharuch, Anand, south Ahmedabad, Botad, 90 -100 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Rajkot, Morbi, Kheda districts of Gujarat from tonight till 18th early morning. Gale winds speed reaching 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph likely to prevail along & off Dadra, Nagar Haveli, Daman, Valsad, Navsari, Surat, Surendranagar, districts from 17th evening till 18th
(iii) Sea condition
- Sea conditions will be Phenomenal over eastcentral and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea till 18th morning and improve gradually thereafter.
- Sea conditions will be High to very High along & off Maharashtra coast during next 12 hours and improve thereafter.
- It is very likely to be High along & off south Gujarat, Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli coasts during next 6 hours becoming Phenomenal till 18th It will improve gradually thereafter.
(iv)Storm surge warning
- Tidal wave above astronomical tide is likely to inundate coastal areas as per details below:
about 3 -4 meter (m) over Anand & Amreli, Gir Somnath, Diu, Bhavnagar, 2-3 m over Bharuch, southern parts of Ahmedabad, 1-2 m over Surat, Navsari, Valsad, and 0.5 – 1m over the remaining coastal districts of Gujarat during the time of landfall. (Details given in Annexure-I).
(v) Fishermen Warning
- Total suspension of fishing operations over eastcentral Arabian Sea, northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat, Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli coasts till the Noon of 18th
- The fishermen are advised not to venture into eastcentral Arabian Sea along & off Maharashtra – Goa coasts and into northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat, Daman, Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli coast till the noon of 18th
- Those who are out at Sea over north Arabian Sea are advised to return to the coast.
(vi) (A) Damage Expected over Diu, Amreli Junagarh, Gir Somnath Botad & Bhavnagar and coastal areas of Ahmedabad:
- Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.
- Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
- Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes. Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signaling systems.
- Widespread damage to salt pans & standing crops. Blowing down of bushy trees.
- Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
- Visibility severely affected.
(B) Damage Expected over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Porbandar, Kutch, Jamnagar, Rajkot & Morbi, Valsad, Surat, Vadodara, Bharuch, Navsari, Anand, Kheda and interior parts of Ahmedabad districts of Gujarat, Daman, Dadra & Nagar Haveli:
- Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.
- Minor damage to power and communication lines.
- Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
- Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
- Major damage to coastal crops.
- Damage to embankments/ salt pans.
(vii) Action Suggested:
- Mobilise evacuation in vulnerable areas.
- Total suspension of fishing operations.
- Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic.
- People in affected areas to remain indoors.
- Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.
(viii) Post Landfall Outlook for interior districts of Gujarat (Districts apart from those mentioned under warning above):
After the landfall the system is very likely to re-curve north-north-eastwards, across Gujarat and weaken gradually. It is likely to maintain the intensity of Cyclonic Storm till the evening of 18th May and thereafter it will weaken gradually into a Depression over south Rajasthan.
Under its influence, light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places very likely over interior districts of Gujarat on 17th and up to 18th afternoon .and over south Rajasthan on 18th May.
Damage expected over interior districts of Gujarat (Districts apart from those mentioned under warning) on 18th May 2021.
(i) Minor damage to power and communication lines. (ii) Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. (iii) Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of small trees. (iv) Damage to banana and papaya trees. (v) People in affected areas to remain indoors.
The system is under continuous surveillance and the concerned state governments are being informed regularly.