AMJ maximum temperature to be warmer by 0.5 to 1 degree Celcius

New Delhi, Mar 31: The April-May-June (AMJ) seasonal average maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal by 0.5 degree Celcius to 1 degree Celcius over some of the meteorological subdivisions of northwest India and western peninsular India, the Indian Meterological Department (IMD) has predicted. The season averaged maximum temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal by 0.5 degree Celcius to 1 degree Celcius over East and West Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, North and South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Kerala. Rest of the country is likely to experience normal maximum temperatures (Departure from normal within -0.5 degree Celcius and 0.5 degree Celcius ). The season averaged minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal by more than 1 degree Celcius over East and West Rajasthan and Gujarat region. It is likely to be warmer than normal by 0.5 degree Celcius to 1 degree Celcius over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi(HCD), East and West Uttar Pradesh, East and West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa, Saurashtra and Kutch, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Vidharbha, North and South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Kerala. Rest of the country is likely to experience normal minimum temperaturesn (Departure from normal within -0.5 degree Celcius and 0.5 degree Celcius ). The season averaged mean temperatures are likely to be warmer than normal by more than 1 degree Celcius over East and West Rajasthan. It is likely to be warmer than normal by 0.5 degree Celcius to 1 degree Celcius over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi(HCD), East and West Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat region, Saurashtra and Kutch, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Vidharbha, North and South Interior Karnataka, Coastal Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Kerala. Rest of the country is likely to experience near normal mean temperatures (Departure from normal within -0.5 degree Celcius and 0.5 degree Celcius ). There is about 40% probability of maximum temperatures in the Core HW zone during April to June 2020 to be above normal. Core HW zone covers the states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Telangana and meteorological subdivisions of Marathawada, Madhya Maharashtra and Coastal Andhra Pradesh. This in turn suggests that slightly above normal frequency of heat wave conditions likely in the core HW zone during the season. ENSO conditions in the Pacific Ocean Currently, warm ENSO-neutral conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest MMCFS forecast indicates that the ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to continue during the entire forecast period. Extended Range Forecast Services IMD also provides extended range forecasts (7 –day averaged forecasts for the next four weeks) of maximum and minimum temperatures over the country updated every week. This is based on the Multi-model ensemble dynamical Extended Range Forecasting System currently operational at IMD, New Delhi.